Wednesday, December 3, 2014

DEAR JEFF CURRIE FROM GOLDMAN SACHS: how did that $1050 gold call work out, buddy?

Just in case y'all forgot: in September 2013, Jeffrey Currie from Goldman Sachs called for $1000 gold in the near term. Back at the end of last year, he refined his target to $1050, by end 2014.

He reiterated his call in Jan 2014. He stood by that call in April.

So Jeff, how did that call work out?

Are you still hoping for $1050 gold by the end of this month? Because 2014 is almost over, Jeffy, and gold's still at $1200. And with the US dollar strongly advancing and everything.

What are you going to do if gold doesn't fall from here? Are you going to say that November's $1130 was "close enough"? Because that's not going to be much of a boost to your credibility, Jeff.

Or will you reiterate your $1050 call and push the date out? End Q1 2015? End Q4 2015?

Because if $1130 was the best you managed to do given Goldman's credibility and market power, with the entire world with you on the short gold trade, with the US dollar advancing strongly, then how can you expect gold to be even weaker next year?

And what happens if some other pundit, say from Deutsche or CS, calls for an average of $1400 gold next year?

Then the market will see a tug of war, between the guy who botched his $1050 gold call and the guy who didn't.

It's going to be a big blow to your mojo, Jeff.

And you'd also be contradicting your own prediction of September 2013 that
For 2015 and beyond, Goldman’s forecast remains at $1,200 an ounce.
If 2014's low was 7.6% above your $1050 call, does that mean you have to revise your 2015 prediction to $1291 then?

Because that contradicts your prediction in April 2014 that
“It would require a significant sustained slowdown in U.S. growth for us to revisit our expectation for lower gold prices over the next two years,” Currie wrote in the report, dated yesterday. “While further escalation in tensions could support gold prices, we expect a sequential acceleration in both U.S. and Chinese activity, and hence for gold prices to decline.”
So how will you justify a $1200 gold price in 2015 without predicting a slowdown in US and Chinese activity? Because it certainly doesn't look like the US economy will slow down in 2015, and China doesn't really look all that bad either.

And how can you call for $1200 gold in 2015 if the price of gold is dependent entirely on the US dollar, or the 10s-2s, or all those other ignorant white people theories?

Are you worried, Jeff, about India's loosening of gold import restrictions? What happens when all the smuggled gold comes back into the official stats? Why would you expect India to toughen its stance on gold again when it's just seen the fuel component of its CAD drop by 30%?

And when you said back in January that
Currie said gold still worked as a hedge against inflation; he just doesn't see any strong inflationary pressures in the next few years. He said once the economic recovery picks up more momentum, inflation would follow and gold may become attractive again. Gold's early 2014 rally won't last, he said.
Does that mean that in 2015 you'll expect the gold price to go back up as the US approaches full employment and Yellen's inflation indicators start to pick up?

Why? Do Americans buy gold or something? That's news to me, Jeff. You got stats to back that up?

And why does American inflation have anything to do with the price of gold, Jeff? Is gold a "currency" whose value depends on American dollar "debasement"? Are you one of them, Jeff? Or do you still believe in supply and demand?

And why doesn't Indian inflation matter to gold demand, Jeff? Inflation in India was still 5.5% in October, and India buys a big chunk of the world's gold production: wanna include that in your little "dollar debasement gold wharrgarbl" theory?

Wanna suddenly discover the existence of India, and assert that 2015 will see a gold price drop because of lowering inflation in India due to reduced fuel costs? Maybe that'll work, Jeff; then again, it'll confuse all your readers who have spent the past several years hearing you assert that gold's price is determined entirely by Wall Street honky crackers.

I'm curious to see your reply, Jeff. You can use the comments box below. A lot of your buddies at other houses are reading this blog, as well as bigmouths like Ritholtz and Josh Brown who appreciate a good mocking, so you might want to reply quickly before you start getting mocking phone calls or your Christmas party invites suddenly disappear.

Let me know, Jeff!

1 comment:

  1. You're overwrought.

    I predict Jeff Currie will double down and predict $900 gold for the end of 2015!