Wednesday, December 24, 2014

A last bit of news for the year

A bit more stuff to read, probably best to leave til after Xmas:

New Deal Demoncrat - more proof of a consumer lift-off due to cheap gas. Various economic data for you to ignore.

Calculated Risk - ten economic questions for 2015. For those of you who care more about economics than about Republican and Russian disinformation.

BI - what we're piddling our panties about now. They say it's a "troublesome commonality" that asset correlation spikes to 1 whenever there's a selloff. I respond that I got used to this during the Euro crisis, and now I see it is a marvellous opportunity to leverage up on the cheap. Now, the hedge funds should be doing this too, because it's free beta, and beta is supposed to arb out. So why aren't they doing this? Maybe because hedge funds are run by clowns who are always piddling themselves in every 2% drop, thus driving correlation to 1?

Oh, and dear Sam Ro: you're still a clueless idiot. - GDXJ rebalancing annihilates these 5 juniors. Premier and Asanko were two of the five to be so clobbered. - Mickey Fulp on why it's so great for junior gold miners to suck™. He thinks there are some deadly deals available. Hey, if gold's not going to drop to $1050, then why not load up, right? He even gives us testable predictions:
Though the current chart is incomplete, I will make some short-term predictions based on previous bear market years:

- The Toronto Venture Exchange Index low for 2014 was likely hit on Tuesday, December 16.
- The market will probably recover a bit or flat line thru the end of this year.
- There should be a significant rally in junior resource stocks in the early days of 2015.
I love testable predictions, Mickey! Most people in the blogosphere give me nonsense pulled out their ass, but you give me testable predictions! What a great Xmas present! Thank you!

1 comment:

  1. The article gives reason for the insane crosses and volume at the close last Friday in the gold stocks. Probably a lot of re balancing went on before the hedgies took the week off.