Thursday, December 18, 2014

A few extra ideas about the holiday market

Been thinking:

1. I wonder whether anyone would want to spend their late-December workdays putting new shorts on the ruble, MICEX and oil. So whatever the balance is right now, I can't see why it should get worse barring new developments.

2. Without intentional selling down, the US markets would drift up over the next 2 weeks, no?

3. But at the same time, I'd not be surprised if everyone kept their downside puts over the holidays, and so $VIX might not drift down much at all.

So the oil move might be done, HYG might normalize around $88-$90 as excitement abates, US markets might drift up but I might not get as much of a win shorting $VIX as I would buying a straight equity ETF.

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