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Thursday, November 20, 2014

IWM vs SPY


Here's IWM vs SPY:


It's at the lower Boll right now, so on the one hand it should turn up, but on the other hand it rode the lower Boll down all through September.

Then again, some guy on the internet says small-caps typically outperform through the end of the year.

Far as I'm concerned, I've been wondering if small caps have been hated enough this year.

Anyway, I'm taking money out of my Japan position (made good money cos it's CAD-hedged in CJP.to) and wondering where else to put it - IWM seems like a good place, maybe I'll try that.

Someone passed me a doc from BAML where they noted that the whole world is overweight Japan right now, so that's a good reason to close out. But in my case, I just don't want to own Japan through an election cycle. No reason, I'm not super-wise about Japan, I just don't want to hold anything through an election.

But knowing the rest of the world is now overweight Japan, and yet the EWJ hasn't really broken out, tells me it was probably a good idea to be scaling back.

As far as the US markets - I dunno if this is a roll-over we're seeing now. It looks more like a horizontal consolidation. And there's no reason for the market to roll over except for profit-taking. And we already had that in that insane October sell-off.


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