Monday, October 20, 2014

Vix term structure is unstupidating today


Vix term structure:



There, that's nice. Nov-Oct was -0.15 earlier today, now it's back to positive. Now we just need to flatten Dec and we'll be back to an unstupidated term structure.

Tell your buddy Cam Hui that he missed the bottom. What does his system say he should do now? Stay in cash?

Thus the problem with trying to time bottoms and tops. What do you do if you're wrong?

Backtesting doesn't work because backtesting doesn't include psychology.


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