Thursday, October 23, 2014

Thursday morning news: Caterpillar, China, Diwali, rare earths and S Club 7

Things were up at the open, but have drooped as USD went up and oil & high-yield went down. As usual. Dunno if things are going to continue like this, but I added $10K in an S&P index ETF. I can always flip it out to short-vix if we get another fear spike.

And by the way, for all you in the press:

#1, it's stupid to blame a stock selloff on a lone nut with a gun in Ottawa. That has no impact on the economy.

#2. it's callous and ignorant to blame a stock selloff on a lone nut with a gun in Ottawa.

Now here's some news:

BI - Caterpillar Q3 earnings beat. Don't trust Sam Ro's take on it, though, because he's admitted he couldn't pay attention to the presentation because of all the awesome pictures of dumptrucks and stuff.

Gavyn Davies - China's slowdown is secular, not cyclical. Sure, though I still think it'll be more of a Korea slowdown, not a collapse. In any case, yes you can't extrapolate 8-10% growth forever: China's not going to overtake the US in per-capita GDP. Ever. In any case, figure out how much physical plant China still has left to build before they can compare to Korea in 2001.

Bloomberg - China vehicle sales forecast cut. To show you how stupid the spin has been, here's a quote:
Dong Yang, secretary general of the state-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said total passenger and commercial vehicle sales for the full year would likely hit 23 million units, or an increase of about 4.6 percent. In July, the group lowered its projection for the increase in China vehicle sales to 8.3 percent, or 23.83 million units, down from the 10 percent increase it predicted in January.
So if the forecast is for 830,000 fewer units sold, and sales are still up 4.6% year-over-year, you don't spin the article as doom & gloom and a validation of a China hard landing thesis.

FT beyond brics - It's Diwali! Time to give gifts.

Council on Foreign Relations - rare earths and national security. A report on rare earths, if you're still interested in them now, five years after they were cool.

Popsugar - S Club 7 are reforming. I know this will be exciting to IKN! He's their biggest fan! And there ain't no party like an S Club party!

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