Monday, October 6, 2014

RITHOLTZ IS MOCKING YOU: here's what you need to know

Four things for you tonight, then it's off to listen to electropop. Freaks me out, a lot of good stuff is going top-ten these past couple years.

I've found the music charts sure are one hell of a lot better than they were in the 90s - probably because the payola-and-promotion system has utterly collapsed. Now the people are choosing their favourite music based on what they like on YouTube, not based on the 40 pieces of crap they used to be force-fed on the radio; and guess what?

People actually have musical taste.

No really, they do.

So instead of they typical 90s situation where you had a dozen talentless rip-offs of Mariah Carey and a dozen talentless rip-offs of Matchbox Twenty choking up the charts, you've got some really good stuff showing up there nowadays. And if some star like Lady Gaga or Avril Lavigne gets fat and lazy, her record sales collapse instantly and she's shipped off to the glue factory within a week, instead of sticking around for another five albums of desperately-promoted garbage like it used to be.

It's an anarchist's wet dream - music gets better when you destroy crony capitalism.

Anyway, here's the news:

New Deal Demoncrat - more deceleration in weekly indicators. Nothing severe though. I think NDD's turning into a bit of a pussy. BTW NDD, since when has Gallup's consumer spending data been useful? I think you can drop that indicator.

Bloomberg - has the market selloff run its course? Well, not today it didn't. It's a fun article if only for the fact the charts have literally been drawn in crayon - take that, TAs! Other than that, I react with suspicion to the idea you can predict the upcoming moves by looking at a single year of put-call ratio and %-under-EMA(20): you'd have to assume this market is the continuation of the last year, which it might not be. Certainly the USD move is nothing like what we've seen over the past year.

Bespoke - gas prices down from last year. Man, that is so going to stoke consumer spending!

Mineweb - Ritholtz is asking how low can gold go. Yup, Ritholtz on Mineweb, laughing in the goldbuggers' faces. But he includes something useful too:
Rather, if you are upside down in gold -- or any other investment for that matter -- you should be asking yourself the following questions:

1. Why did I make this investment? Is the underlying thesis still valid?

2. What will trigger unwinding this trade? What is my risk management for this position?

3. Am I wrong?

These questions address three key aspects of anyone’s approach to investing: Why a trade was put on, how and when that trade should come off and the trader’s own psychology as it relates to that holding. Note this applies to any position, investment, asset class or approach to deploying capital.
Everyone should do this with every position. It means the difference between a 5% loss and an 80% loss.

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