Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Late night comment on $VIX, with some perspective on $VIXen of old
I really don't see how $VIX can go much higher.
By comparison, according to the old vixandmore blog, in 2011 $VIX went to 30 on the goddamn Fukushima earthquake and meltdown for the love of god and all that is holy. Have you seen any tsunamis kill tens of thousands of people lately? No?
The debt ceiling bullshit later that year sent $VIX to 48. Are we expecting that again this year? Not with midterm elections, we aren't.
The Eurodoom maintained $VIX in the 30-45 range for months, though. (Hey, do you remember when Standard & Poors cut Spain and Italy's debt ratings in 2011? Hm? How clever does Standard & Poors look now, with Spain's 10Y yielding 2.12%? Do they look clever now?)
But today is not Eurodoom. It's just another stupid recession, everyone knows how Europe can get out of it, everyone knows Europe won't because the Germans are cunts, and so it's just a boring old recession that they were nearly in for the past 2 years anyway.
This is little in the way of useful comment on expectation of future S&P moves, or even on the reasonableness of buyingXIV or HVI right now.
But you needed my little dose of perspective, especially if you've been reading the doomsters of international jewry over at BI and Ritholtz.com.