Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Another thing about the "this time is like the last time" analogy problem


Regarding this earlier post of mine:

Me - ha ha Ritholtz you suck.

If Ned Davis Research thinks that this time is like last time, and therefore gold can drop to $660, then he must also think that the next time is like the last next time, right?

I mean, after gold bottomed at around $250, it then shot up to almost $2000 in something like a decade, no?

So when gold hits $660/oz, we should all buy gold, because it's going to go up to $5000, right?

I mean, I'd take an 8x profit over 10 years, wouldn't you?

Or is this time not like last time after all?

If this time isn't like last time, then Ned Davis is full of shit, and we can just ignore him from now on like all the other TAs, right?


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