Monday, September 29, 2014
Oh and also, a VIX downside target
This chart tells you that it's been perfectly normal, as in five occasions over the past 2.5 years, for $VIX to spike +3.5SD on the weekly chart.
The present statistical set puts that target at 19; but the bands are widening, so maybe 20 will be the ultimate target.
I doubt we can get to a 2011-style outlier without a global panty-piddling of Eurodoom proportions.
I still don't get what's driving this present crotch-wetness: fear of Catalunya independence? Fear of a Hong Kong massacre? Or fear that Gross leaving Pimco will collapse the world bond market?