Monday, September 22, 2014

Monday morning market something-beginning-with-m

Tried to create an alliterative headline, couldn't be arsed.

Here's charts, let me tell you a story:

HYG might be locally topped at the SMA(50) and threatening to fail a MACD cross, and thus about to drop for a bit; thus maybe we can expect the algos to freak out and puke stuff.

Because the algos don't know how to factor in the fact that junk debt is the most well-funded that it's been for a decade. It's just a dumb intermarket TA input to them.

IWM still hasn't flown upward, and now it's even -3SD. Cuz reasons. I guess you could say small-cap has spent the past couple years outperforming, now it should stop?

And yet, transports tells us that the real US economy (manufacturing, exporting and buying things, which always necessarily also entails transporting them) is still doing fine.

As evidenced for example by Union Pacific, which still seems to be sailing along quite fine, no? I mean it's still going up, no? 1.9% yield and two divvie raises in a year is a good omen, no?

And yet $VIX pops back over the EMA.

Translation: fuck I dunno. Maybe the market just wants itself to puke in September and realizes it's running out of time?

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