In your opinion, what does this blog need more of?

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET COLLAPSE HAS BEGUN: here's what you need to know


Oh noes!

The Guardian - West Antarctic ice sheet collapse has already begun!

JPL - West Antarctic glacier loss appears unstoppable!

The Guardian - West Antarctic ice sheet collapse could drown Middle East and Asia crops!


Um, wait.

Here's the abstract of the paper that I guarantee you nobody has read:

Resting atop a deep marine basin, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has long been considered prone to instability. Using a numerical model, we investigated the sensitivity of Thwaites Glacier to ocean melt and whether its unstable retreat is already under way. Our model reproduces observed losses when forced with ocean melt comparable to estimates. Simulated losses are moderate (<0.25 mm per year at sea level) over the 21st century but generally increase thereafter. Except possibly for the lowest-melt scenario, the simulations indicate that early-stage collapse has begun. Less certain is the time scale, with the onset of rapid (>1 mm per year of sea-level rise) collapse in the different simulations within the range of 200 to 900 years.

So...

So you're saying I don't even have to be able to outrun it.

0.25mm/yr equals one inch for this century, and I don't even intend to live that long.

There must be some magical panty-piddling drug that's hit the water supply in the last week.


3 comments: