Monday, August 4, 2014

Some news for the afternoon

Here's some newsbits:

Calculated Risk - US prime working age population is growing again. Don't fight demographics.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - I've had a nice weekend and I'm not pissing my panties anymore. He explains the sudden volatility as a spate in port rebalancing, which is funny that it didn't happen at the end of June but whatever. At least it's not the usual lamestream media explanation of "wharrgarbl Russia wharrgarbl wages wharrgarbl impending collapse".

Chronicles of Brodrick - 3 bullshit facts for precious metals and miners. Oh Sean, it's so sweet of you to follow my lead and watch India for gold price cues while the rest of the Wall Street Whiteys still believe gold has something to do with the USA. However:
By the way, the el Nino threat to India's monsoons has been downgraded ... the monsoons are hitting hard enough to cause deadly landslides ... and India has drought-resistant rice now anyway, So, while rainfall across northern India is about 33% below the normal level for this point in the monsoon season, maybe we shouldn't measure this year by previous years. Just sayin'.
1. A lot of the damage has already been done. You can't sow crops without rain, and sowing season is past. India will try to get late-planting seed out to farmers to sow late, but their yields are poor.

2. There's always a landslide somewhere in India. (Similarly, there's always a drought somewhere in India.) India is a large country, so this means nothing for overall farm productivity across the country.

3. You're assuming India has 20th-century (or even 19th-century) logistics. Fact is, most farmers don't get access to the good seed because they're 200 miles away from anything you would ever consider calling a "road".

4. When rainfall is several points below 90% you start to see a drop-off in productivity. Go look at the data.

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