Friday, August 22, 2014

Some more Friday news reading

Instead of wasting your valuable time reading yet more obsessive-compulsive blather on that thoroughly discredited and proven-worthless steaming pile of shit known as the Shiller CAPE, how about reading some real news and analysis?

I mean I don't waste my own fucking time trying to disprove TimeCube, so why does Ritholtz think he has to disprove Shiller CAPE's usefulness? Quit wasting your fucking time.

Calculated Risk - miles driven increased in May. It was down for so long, it's interesting to see it moving back up. If the miles trend has reestablished itself, it'll be interesting to see if US gasoline prices rise as well - or if we instead see that funny secular commodity bear market behaviour.

New Deal Demoncrat - retail sales per capita. Dude, just wait to see what happens with gasoline and wages before you call this bull half-over.

FT Alphaville - on wages and inflation. Cardiff Garcia doesn't seem to buy the "secular stagnation" hype either.

The Krugginator - Charles Plosser is a clueless right-wing doomer cunt. Quote, with links:
The Times article singles out for special mention Charles Plosser of the Philadelphia Fed, who is, indeed, warning about inflation risks. But you should know that he warned about the danger of rising inflation in 2008. He warned about it in 2009. He did the same in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. He was wrong each time, but, undaunted, he’s now doing it again.
Man, that's what's great about professors. Nobody does merciless, withering mockery of the ignorant better than a prof.

By the way, here's a word of wisdom to those of you who like to mock others in print: there is no better mockery than that which simply uses your target's own words. Especially from a legal perspective.

Price Action Blab - where the heck are the horizontal consolidations? He thinks there's a problem with how there are so many BTFD Vs in the post-2009 S&P chart. But why should there be a problem? The US is still recovering from a panic-selling liquidity crisis in 2008-9. In contrast, 1995-6 occurred in an already mature bull market and (from what I remember) involved a lot of sector rotation as interest rates were brought back up from the 1991-2 recession. 2003-5 was in a bear market rally; there might have been some rotation there too, as the only sectors I can find that reliably did well coming out of 2005 were miners and oil. Basically, quit trying to draw false equivalencies: this time is always different. Just buy the damn SPY and quit piddling your pink panties.

Ritholtz - get ready for a Chinese rally. Yeah, or maybe not. A downward channel breakout can just be a widening of the downward channel's top bound, buddy: see 2005 on your chart. In any case, Barry, why the fuck are you looking at the Shanghai exchange's chart? Can you buy it? No you can't buy it. Look at a sack of Whitey-segregated garbage that the hedge fund clowns buy, like FXI, and tell me where the breakout is there. And by the way, has BAML never fucking figured out how to generate a log-y chart? Are they retarded or something?

Mineweb - rural Indian gold demand DISAPPEARING. All-caps to make the goldbugs read the story. But an interesting datapoint for me in this is that "about 7% to 8% of rural household savings goes into gold buying in India": that, my friends, is an asset allocation strategy, unconscious or not; and the big question is thus whether that rate can decrease over (what's hopefully still going to be) ten or twenty years of real wealth growth in India. I think that a change in the gold allocation rate is something that takes generations, not just years.

WaPo - why surveillance companies hate the iPhone. Crap... so does this mean that if I want proper datasec, then my next phone has to be an Apple product?

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