Wednesday, August 13, 2014

silver breaks down

Silver sucks:

That's a lower low, below a short-period EMA. The move also comes after a week of dithering whether it had done enough with filling the June "gap" (and yes, I know, there are no real gaps in gold and silver because they're traded all day - but I assume Wall Street Whitey ignores this). Thus I guess we can expect silver to keep going down for a while.

So what would happen to the gold miners?

GDXJ is supposed to correlate with SLV, but it hasn't been doing so recently. So does it finally break down out of this horizontal band it's been in for the past 2 months? The last 5 days of low volume suggests maybe.

We'll see what happens. Metals opex isn't til Aug 26th, so I don't know why these should be making big dumb moves right now. Maybe it's just because there's almost nobody left trading silver, so the moves are exaggerated.


The senior miners are actually threatening to break out to the upside?

But the last week of volume has been really uninspiring. It's as if there was institutional buying drove GDX up in June and July, and now it's been left for an ever-dwindling pool of retail to make the next push.

Again, we'll see what happens. Yes there still is gold seasonality in the goldbugs' favour, Diwali is still coming. But maybe the mid-season pullback has to get strong enough to piss everyone off before moving back into a blowoff advance thru September..

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