Friday, August 29, 2014

Larry Swedroe: who cares what Hussman forecasts? - who cares what Hussman forecasts?

Welcome to the club, Swedroe you pantywaist. Where were you two years ago when I was mocking John Hussman for his incompetent bullshit?

As further evidence of why you should ignore market forecasts like Hussman’s, consider the following performance data on his flagship fund, Hussman Strategic Growth (HSGFX). As of Aug. 4, 2014, the fund had $1.1 billion in assets—less than 40 percent of what it had just 19 months earlier—as investors fled, unhappy with the poor performance.


According to Morningstar, for the 10-year period ending Aug. 1, 2014, the fund managed to lose 1.3 percent a year, trailing the S&P 500 Index—which returned 8.0 percent—by more than 9 percentage points a year. That’s actually even worse than the 10-year calendar returns (2004-2013) of the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index, which returned 1.1 percent a year. And it’s far worse than the performance of every single major equity asset class over that period.

It even managed to underperform the almost riskless Vanguard Short Term Treasury Fund (VFISX) by more than 4 percent a year for the 10-year period ending Aug. 1, 2014. The fund’s performance placed it in the very last percentile (100) of Morningstar’s rankings for the one-, three-, five- and 10-year periods. And for the privilege of investing with Hussman, investors pay 1.08 percent per year in fund expenses.

Yup. Hussman has in fact grossly underperformed cash for the past ten fucking years.

If you have underperformed the S&P 500, that's one thing. Hey, maybe you're trying to be too cautious. Buffett's slightly underperformed the S&P since the 2009 bottom and nobody calls him a dummy.

But if this incompetent fucking clown Hussman has underperformed the fucking dollar bill in your pocket over the last ten years, then he is not worth listening to.

Why is everyone still giving this worthless idiot ink? You can just ignore him, you know.

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