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Friday, August 22, 2014

EMs - I don't like the weekly charts


Screw FXI, which doesn't measure anything in reality anyway, and screw EEM which god knows what the fuck are its constituents anymore.

Here's YAO:


Overbought by Bollingers, overbought by RSI.

Sure, it's a breakout of horizontal resistance, if you look at it that way. But turn it sideways a bit, and it's at the top of its 3-year upward-sloping channel.

I wouldn't buy it.

Here's the Shanghai:


Wow! That really sucks in comparison.

OK, maybe that's a triple bottom that played out over the past 2 years. That might actually be very bullish and override the overboughtness of the chart above.

Then again, maybe the $SSEC is reality, and the China ETFs are bullshit precisely because that's all the hedge fund clowns ever buy. So you get a "China stocks perform badly unless they're the ones the White suckers have bought" setup, which I wouldn't want to be part of.

Here's the Nifty:


Sure advanced hard on the Modi win, didn't it?

But do you remember what happened in Japan after Abe won? The Japanese ETF advanced by a third, then spent the past year doing nothing.

At some point, data has to take over. According to Shaoul, the Japanese data has been finally taking over, and yet EWJ is still doing nothing.Meanwhile, India's running into a monsoon - as well as a long period of structural adjustment under Modi if they're lucky.



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