Tuesday, August 5, 2014

August 2011 - it was the age of silly predictions

I'm not going to provide a link, cos frankly I still like the guy and I think he's probably learned a lot in the intervening 3 years.

But here's a prediction from a paid junior gold newsletter writer, from back on 15 August 2011:
The various conventional equities not only have to repair significant short-term damage but in the process they face multi-year resistance. Precious metals shares do not have that short-term damage and have already surpassed and successfully retested that multi-year resistance. So what will happen in the next six months as precious metals equities make new highs, Gold is at $2000, Silver at $50 and the average person is looking at their stocks going nowhere?

The next six to nine months should set the table for the beginnings of a bubble in precious metals. Throughout this bull market, other markets have performed well enough at times which has diverted investors attention and capital away from precious metals. With conventional equities fading, major concerns with bonds and relative strength in precious metals, the tables are set for the mining shares over the next few years.
That was on 15 August 2011.

So what did happen in the next 6 months? Did PM equities make new highs, gold hit $2000, silver $50, and the average person see their stocks go nowhere?

PM equities dove over 20% after this was written, at one point registering a >35% drawdown. It got worse later, of course.

To its credit, gold remained relatively steady over the next 6 months. Which is nevertheless still a far cry from $2000 gold, and nothing like a bubble. Sometime after that, of course, gold crashed. Silver never saw $50 again.

SPY did see a 5% drawdown after this was written. But then it spent the next 6 months gaining 15%.

And were the "tables [...] set for the mining shares over the next few years"?

Um... does a 70% decline count? Is this the table you're talking about?

To his credit, he is a good guy. He was just hanging around goldbugs and ignorant newsletter writers too much, and got infected with a lot of their ideas. Which still serves as a warning. No matter how smart you are, always practice good information hygiene: never ever ever let other people's half-baked illogical ideas into your head. Never ever even let them pop up on your screen.

Nobody knows everything, nobody even knows very much of anything. But it's damn easy to learn how to spot things that aren't worth knowing. Avoid those and you'll avoid a lot of misleading politically-motivated bullshit. And the biggest of these baseless, misleading dogturds of quasiknowledge is Austrian/Randroid/Republican "economics". Ignore that and you'll profit from it.

And for the love of god please quit thinking that your favourite goldbug newsletter writer has the slightest clue about anything at all. Especially about economics.

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