Thursday, July 24, 2014

Your monsoon update, for those who know that India buys the world's gold

India buys the world's gold, and Indian farmers buy most of India's gold. So what's the monsoon been doing recently?

Reuters - monsoon revival keeps rain above average. Quote:
A month and half-long weak phase in the monsoon pushed rainfall a quarter below the average so far for the season that started in June. But a revival after mid-July pushed the rain level to above average last week.

Rainfall was 24 percent above average in the week ended July 23, the first week of surplus for this year's monsoon season.

Poor rain levels since the start of the June-September season raised concerns that India would face its first drought in five years, with coverage for most of the main summer crops slipping below the halfway mark.
So that's an improvement. Though I don't know enough about Indian farming to be able to guess whether the crop is already doomed for this year no matter what rain is still to come.

Economic Times - late monsoon forces rural India to cut expenses. Quote:
In terms of discretionary spending, sectors that feel a ripple effect of a poor crop are two wheelers, white goods, cooking oil, gold and silver. Angshu Mallick, COO of Adani Wilmar, says rural buyers downtrade in hard times, from branded products to unbranded ones. "They will even switch over from soybean or mustard oil to palm oil as it is a cheaper alternative," he adds.

Gold and silver, a preferred asset class in rural India, will be among the worst hit.

India's annual gold demand is about 950 tonnes. "Rural India consumes 60%," says Haresh Soni, chairman, All India Gem & Jewellery Trade Federation. "If the crop production is not up to the mark, Diwali offtake in bullion will take a beating."
Translation for dumbass Whitey: that's bad for gold. It's bad to the tune of up to 570 tons. But you go on and keep buying gold because inflation deflation Ukraine Israel dollar potato. I'm sure that'll work out well for you.

And no, Goldman Sachs didn't base their $1050 gold target on Indian rainfall modelling.

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