Monday, July 7, 2014

India monsoon update


And since the Indian monsoon is the single best determinant of gold demand worldwide (BECAUSE INDIANS BUY GOLD, NOT WALL STREET WHITEY), let's see what's in the news:


Times of India - monsoon officially hits Bhopal. That's still only central India. Though it only hit 2 days later than the previous worst, which strangely was in 2012, a good year for rain overall.


Reuters - monsoon strengthens after weakest start in five years. Why do you care?:
The weak start to this year's monsoon pushed the government to take tough steps including raids against hoarders to ease market concerns over possible supply shortages.

Soaring prices of basic goods such as milk and potatoes lifted retail food inflation in May to 9.4 percent and there have been fears of worse to come with the delayed spread of the monsoon to the grain bowl region of northwest India.
Though NW India doesn't buy as much gold as the south, apparently.


Bloomberg - India drought odds seen increasing. But quote:
The odds of a drought are 60 percent now, compared with 25 percent in April, Skymet’s Chief Executive Jatin Singh told reporters in New Delhi today. Monsoon, which accounts for more than 70 percent of the annual rainfall, will be 91 percent of a 41-year average of 89 centimeter (35 inches) this year, he said. That will be least since the 78 percent in 2009, according to data from Skymet, a private forecaster.
But 91% isn't a drought: when you chart yield versus rainfall, 91% doesn't have much effect on yields. It's when you get down below 80% that it really starts to impact the harvest. My advice is ignore the whining and worrying (especially from a "private weather forecaster"), and look at the hard data.

No comments:

Post a Comment