Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Grant Williams loves Raoul Pal

My old Raoul Pal post is one of the most popular on the blog again today. (That's the post where I make fun of him pumping Bitcoin, not the one where I make fun of him for bottom-ticking a sell call at the June 2012 bottom.)

Whenever this happens, I try to figure out why people are looking this clown up and coming to my blog.

But there has really been nothing on the internet on the past week about Raoul Pal, as far as I know.

Except this:

Mauldin Economics - Grant Williams goes on a vision quest, or something, god I dunno.

It would seem that this one article spurred a large amount of interest in Raoul Pal due to this ebullient praise:

About three years ago, somebody sent me a piece of writing he thought I would like, with the strict warning that I wasn’t to forward it to anybody, quote from it, or make any reference to it in any way in my own writing. Period.

My friend was quite forceful about this and told me that he had never forwarded anything written by this particular author before, because the material was available only to a very small group of people, was extremely expensive to subscribe to, and the author was (quite rightly) fiercely protective of his work.

The only reason he had sent it to me was that it contained an article on a subject I had recently written about, and the author’s thoughts were very well-aligned with my own.

Obviously, my interest was piqued, and so I sat down to read the 60-odd-page, chart-filled literary magical mystery tour I had been sent.

It was one of the best things I’d ever read.

There was something about the way the author wrote — colloquially, but clearly, with great understanding of his subject — that enabled him to convey complex concepts effectively, and the quality and depth of his thinking resonated strongly with me.

I read the piece a few times and then began to wonder who this guy was — and, more importantly to me at that point, why I had never heard of him before.

My research into the mysterious author revealed just enough for me to understand that I SHOULD have heard of him, and the question as to why I was unfamiliar with his work turned 180 degrees — I became fascinated with the fact that our paths HADN’T crossed up to this point.

Interestingly, over the next few months I began hearing his name more often, and as I traveled around the world I occasionally happened to see copies of his work sitting on the odd desk — and it was always on the desks of seriously smart, highly engaged people. So, whenever I could, I snuck a look at his writing to see where his thought process was taking him.

Maybe it was my imagination, or maybe it was because I was now looking for it, but each time I heard his name or came across his work, I had the feeling that I’d stumbled upon some kind of bizarre, exclusive club into which I hadn’t been invited. And that feeling grew.

All I knew about the mysterious stranger was that he lived in a tiny fishing village on the Valencian Coast of Spain, that he had retired at a young age from running one of the world’s largest hedge funds (at the time, anyway), and that he was a truly brilliant and original thinker.

So I emailed him.

I had been invited to speak at a small gathering in Spain; and because my travels rarely included Europe, I figured I should at least make the effort to meet him while I was so close, and so I offered to drive out to his village and buy him dinner.

To my surprise and delight, he responded the same day, said he was familiar with my own writing, and very graciously accepted my offer to feed him.

A month later I found myself sitting at a beachside bar overlooking the Mediterranean Sea, having dinner with Raoul Pal and his colleague Remi T├ętot.

For the past ten years, Raoul has been writing and publishing The Global Macro Investor from his home in the picturesque town of Javea. GMI is utterly brilliant.

As the evening wore on, the conversation flowed easily among the three of us as we realized that we all saw the world in the same way. Not only that, but we had some very definite ideas about how financial information reaches its audience — about the quality of that information and also about the platforms used to disseminate it.

So does this mean that Grant Williams is also an idiot who sold out of the stock market in June 2012, and put all his money into Bitcoin?

Because this is Raoul Pal:

Zerohedge - as of June 2012 you only have 6 months at best before the whole system collapses!!!!

My Own Market Narrative - and thus I make fun of him.

Silver Doctors - Bitcoin's upside is 5000x gold's!!!!!

My Own Market Narrative - and thus I make fun of him again.

And Grant Williams thinks Raoul Pal is an utter genius. So now, if you follow the Principle of Cootie Contagion, you can add Grant Williams' drooling blather to the list of stuff that you can ignore on the internet from now on.


  1. Grant Williams thinks Raoul Paul (sic) is a genius because RP espouses the same ideas he does. So Grant Williams thinks himself a genius. Confirmation bias.

  2. The date on the silver doctors post is Nov 11 2013, at that time bitcoins were going at around $350 They then topped at near 1200 in early December.

    They now trade in the low $600's.

    You were right on about his 2012 bottom tick and Sprott dumping their Phyzz
    in Dec 2013.

    The bitcoin looks like good call though from what happened to the price.

    Bitcoin price chart


    1. Good for him, he got one call.

      I eagerly await the time these bitcoin investors try to sell their positions.

  3. I started taking Bitpay for poster sales on a few of my sites in Jan 13.

    During that time I accumulated about 40 of them and have sold 20 of
    those mostly just using Craigslist.

    You are right when you suggest the market for these can be flaky,
    but the ecosystem has greatly expanded and now
    I can move BTC to a debit card with just a few clicks.

    As to the future we'll see, I got mine cheap so this is more a
    curiosity than a core investment.