Friday, July 25, 2014

Gold and the miners - charts for the weekend


GDXJ is below its short-term EMA and MACD is down. Thus the uptrend is over.

GLD is below its short-term EMA and MACD is down. Thus the uptrend is over.

RIOM is below its short-term EMA and MACD is down. Thus the uptrend is over. Same for all the other miners I'm interested in.

SLV is below its short-term EMA and MACD is down. Thus the uptrend is over.

Maybe this all just happened because someone needed to monkeyhammer the juniors for OpEx, like I've been saying. But for now, the uptrend is over, and I don't buy downtrends.

Criteria for me giving a crap again is these charts getting back over their EMAs and going upwards.

Call me a momo.


  1. For the short-term trend, I'd recommend RSI combined with the 20-day MA.

    1. Why 20-day? How does the 20-day matter to anything?

      It was a fast trend upward this past month, and if you go by the closing prices and the quick reversals, it was a short EMA like 8 or 9 that governed the price movve.

      So, I use the EMA(x) that governed the last price move.

      Even being charitable and boosting EMA to 14 still gives a bunch of broken charts. Though I guess it's heartening that the miners haven't broken down the way the GLD has. It suggests the market thinks the bottom was in.

  2. But price support was probably key to this, as well as the dismal performance of the broad indices. Sometimes, the best thing is to be lucky.

  3. This trade looks done to me...did I not remind you of the seasonality of the June to September trade...only this time the music has stopped faster and no one wants to be standing around looking for a chair to sit on. The money is moving faster in this trade and is getting out in August.

    Look for a double low in December then I will be convinced that the toilet is finally flushing properly.

    But carry on with the freedom fest mindset....Rick has set a spot for you at the table on the cruise ship SS Fiat.

    Stooopid Gold.


    Bitter Dave!

    1. GDXJ already moved from $35 to $46, not including the May OpEx fakeout. The magnitude of that move compared to usual seasonality suggests you might be right. It shouldn't have been more than a 50% pop in any case, and the physical market is weak this year.

      Also, it bears repeating: gold seasonality fails when the Indian monsoon fails.

      Still, look at your charts. There is often a mid-season retrace of significant size. Diwali buying is still coming in a couple months, and the people in India who buy the most gold (the south) have been getting acceptable rain.

      I remain agnostic, but that seems to be the smart way to go.

    2. BTW I'm especially in agreement with you that the money may simply be moving faster this year.

  4. I'm sorry Dave has been left so bitter by all this. The market is a cruel mistress. The good news is you can make plenty of money elsewhere -- for example, energy has been dishing up one winning trade after another all year. The big question, of course, is what's next. And I'll continue to read Dave's excellent blog, even if he never writes another word about gold.

    1. Awww schucks thanks Sean!

      Since Astro Rock and IWANTNACHOS got the gold covered maybe I should cover the oil patch, mind you the characters just are not as colourful in that sector. The oil patch needs a Rick Rule/JR Ewing type character.