Friday, July 11, 2014

Four links for Friday


Here's some stuff:

Calculated Risk - awesome hotel occupancy rates. Best year since 2000 for hotels. So do you still believe the clowns who say the US economy is just "muddling along"?


Ritholtz - on asshole pundits. Some comment:
The reality is that expert forecasts are statistically indistinguishable from random guesses. The funny thing about these predictions is the more specific and confident the forecaster is, the more likely the viewing public will believe them. And even more amazing, the more self-confident a pundit is, the worse their track record is likely to be, with the least-accurate guesses coming from the most famous pundits, or those who got lucky with one big outlier.
Personally, the more arrogantly self-confident a pundit is, the more likely I'm going to think he's an idiot. Because many pundits have personally made very confident predictions to me that turned out to be utter bullshit months later, whereupon said pundit has given me yet another perfectly confident prediction with a straight face.
The next time you see someone blathering on TV, or read a front-page article blaring about the bubble, or see any magazine cover warning of the impending recession, simply Google the track record of the forecaster. After you stop laughing, you can set about doing something more productive with your time.
If the guy is constantly wrong, or even mostly wrong, or even wrong 50% of the time, why should you listen to anything the clown has to say? Bonddad and Calculated Risk are wrong only very rarely, so why listen to some other idiot whose predictions would have left you completely wrong-footed? Who is the goldbug buffoon who kept you out of the S&P 500 since the gold miner bubble burst in 2011?


Mineweb - First Quantum hunts for more copper deals. And this from the guys who already own Taca Taca and Cobre.


Chronicles of Brodrick - base metals blast off! What Eric Coffin already said, except in chart form. Should the PMs correlate positively with base metal prices?


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