Friday, June 27, 2014

Some noontime noos

Here's some stuff to read, or else:

Ritholtz - single variable market analysis is for fucktards. You can not look at one single number and say "aha! therefore doom!". Why not? Because economies and markets have hundreds of different inputs, all fighting against each other. It's about as stupid as saying "if you eat a carrot, you'll live to 100". Anyone who simplifies everything down to one figure is a moron and you should block their website.

Data Dive - here's why it's so hard to land a job. The thesis at the end about social networks is demonstrably bullshit (ask a sociologist - the whole "atomization of society" wank died in the 90s with Douglas Coupland's career). But they do make one important observation: difficulty in finding a job has nothing whatsoever to do with a "skills mismatch", which really is just a Republican bugaboo intended to blame the poor for being poor. Why are we sure there's no "skills mismatch"? Because if there was one, the people with the skills would see their pay skyrocketing.

Bloomberg - EM ETFs show biggest premium since 2012. I dunno... if you're paying a 0.2% premium to buy something grossly liquid like EEM, I'd have to wonder if you're buying at the wrong time.

FT beyond brics - Modi's biggest challenge. Again, Jim O'Neill says it's easy for India to improve its growth - just quit doing stupid things. Too bad, then, that they have to try to quit doing stupid things with the secular credit cycle against them. As well as this:

Reuters - monsoon revival seen in early July. Rainfall has been about 40% below average so far this season, which spells doom if it carries on through the summer. Thing could improve in July, of course. But if the Indian Ocean dipole sets up the way the Japanese have recently predicted, that could cause even more trouble.

And by the way - the last time the summer seasonality for gold didn't show up was during the last Indian drought. But of course Indian farmers have nothing to do with the gold price, right? - mining costs in Chile versus a decade ago. I guess the secular commodity cycle has this going for it - where in the world is it getting cheaper to mine anything?

Reuters - US brokerage must pay athletes $13.7M for Ponzi fraud. Hey, shitty gold explorecos could easily raise a heck of a lot of capital in private placements. Just find a few thousand rich people who suffer from poor judgment and impulsivity due to post-concussion syndrome.

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