Thursday, June 5, 2014

If you want to be bearish gold, here's what you want to see happen

If you want to be bearish gold and gold miners, the charts are setting up to either give you what you want or prove you wrong:

GDX bust through support on high volume last week. Since then it's slowly crawled back up to its EMA, but it's done so on declining volume, as if we're running out of people interested in bidding it back up. That looks bearflaggy to me, so a bear wants to see this flag break down.

GDXJ is the same. It should fail this retest of its EMA/gap fill, and drop like a stone, if the bearish case works.

Silver is trying to retest overhead resistance that got broken through last week. A failure means lower to go.

I'm agnostic, despite the volume warnings. The fact remains that gold died on OpEx; and as far as I'm concerned, that changes the character of what we've been seeing.

We'll see.

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