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Thursday, June 12, 2014

HERE ARE YOUR ONTARIO ELECTION RESULTS


UPDATE: so as it turns out, Wynne won 59 seats, the Conservatives have something like 27, and thus the website threehundredeight.com was a total abject failure at predicting the election results.

Seriously. They said 25 PC seats was the absolute lower limit of possibility. A result of 27 makes this website look really bad. Back to the drawing board, guys! Your algorithm obviously sucks.

Thankfully, the people of Ontario realized what an utter clown Hudak is, and all the pundits and press have made fools out of themselves by taking that idiot's babbling seriously. I hope someday the media will figure out that they should quit giving exposure to utter idiots.

I'll leave the original post below, but you don't have to bother reading it.


So there's this website called threehundredeight.com, and they apparently do poll projections by riding to determine most likely election results similar to what an American site did famously in the last US election.

This is what they have for their projected result:



Hilariously, when the election was called the Ontario legislature was at 48/37/21 with 1 vacant. So if the above turns out to be the actual result, nothing will have been accomplished.

And with nothing accomplished, it's rather likely Horwath will get kicked out of the NDP leadership for making them look stupid. The above election result would have her tagged as "$90 million waste-of-time Horwath" for the rest of her life.

But I rather think this website has screwed up their algorithm.

My opinion on this projected result?

The regional breakdown above is suspect, I think. I'd think that Hudak, the Nazi fundie space-cadet unemployable wackjob that he is, could still get a heck of a lot more than 9 seats in the 905; that was Harris' old stronghold, and Hudak's platform is basically "Mike Harris didn't go far enough".

Similarly, 0 conservative seats in Toronto? Really?

Toronto, the city that (outside of the downtown) still supports coke-snorting, drug-dealer-loving, alcoholic bigmouthed ignorant obnoxious worthless asshole Rob Ford?

I would think Hudak might surprise to the upside in Toronto. Watch out in Toronto!

SW Ontario is no surprise. The Conservatives have spent several years pandering to the rural types who whine about high electricity prices, so they have a strong and loyal base.

I'm surprised that this website projects Hudak to actually win seats in North Ontario: that part of the country will literally cease to exist if he fires off 100,000 civil servants and guts the provincial budget. How do you expect to develop the mines and forestry in N. Ont. if there's no civil service and no road construction? There is literally no money coming into North Ontario that doesn't come straight from the government's teat. Then again, maybe North Ontario voters are just really, really stupid.

So I'd not be surprised if the Conservatives got the "max" figure above for both Toronto and 905. With that change to the above figures, all else remaining the same, the result would be 33-52-22, PCs win a minority.

Except the Liberals would never agree to form a government with Hudak, so the Liberals and NDP would form a coalition instead. And then the neocon wackaloons who run our press and pollute the airwaves with their pig-ignorant vacuous Nazi fantasy-land blather would scream murder about Hudak being "robbed".

(This, despite it being Constitutional law that, if nobody wins a majority, then Wynne does indeed get the first shot at forming a government. That is how things work in Canada: the Lieutenant Governor asks the incumbent Premier to try to form a government first, if it's mathematically possible.)

So, unless the province is yet crazier and more stupid than even I give it credit for, there's no way Hudak becomes the next premier. Thank god.

But you better hope he disappears before the next election.

Anyway, for the first time in ever, my home was canvassed by all three major parties - even the Conservatives, which is hilarious - so this election seems more hotly contested than has been let on.

I voted Green, btw.


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