Friday, May 23, 2014

Morning news delivery

Here are some newsbits:

Bespoke - bullish sentiment declines. This as the S&P is still within a rounding error of all-time highs.

Calculated Risk - best year since 2000 for hotels. So therefore the US economy is about to collapse, right? Is that how it works? I dunno, I'm a moron who reads goldbug newsletters.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - CAPE, forward returns, and you. Here's something for the economics-disabled goldbug newsletter writers:
CAPE is a valuable tool for assessing the long-run valuation of this market era relative to history but a tool is all it is – not an answer. Like all other measures and metrics, it should not be used in the absence of other tools, common sense included.
To me, that means "don't blather on about CAPE when a hundred other metrics show the US is continuing to expand and there are literally zero danger signs on the horizon". Also, it means "use some fucking common sense".

Ritholtz - value emerges in... wait, Japan? I've still got my long-term hold in CIE.TO which holds a large chunk in Japan, so I don't need to do anything if this is right.

Macrobusiness - Goldman on the Chinese property bust. It's not actually a particularly frightening scenario, according to them.

FT beyond brics - when will Mongolia default? No, really? Another "frontier country" turns uninvestable. That sounds to me like the end of the EM secular bull market.

New Yorker - how the FBI cracked a Chinese spy ring. Rollicking-fun read.