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Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Some morning news


Stuff:

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - 361 Capital weekly research briefing. Read it all. Good summary of where the markets stand, as usual.

Calculated Risk - on stay-at-home dads. Bill McBride again on demographic changes and their effect on labour force participation. God, I just love it when someone actually looks under the hood to see what numbers really mean! And digs up sociological research too? My god, even better!

Bespoke - would you buy these charts? I guess this exercise legitimately illustrates that the market momos should be shorting the US right now. But the problem is that the US market charts are supposed to continue going u, if we're in a secular expansion; so all a short would be doing is playing a short-term correction in a longer trend.And we know how well that works out for the hedge fund capital pool.

Bonddad - some charts re Japan. I guess the takeaway is "the recovery will have to be slow because they're digging out of an extreme negative situation". Thus, the capital that pumped up the Nikkei on the Abe win has no clue about timing.

FT beyond brics - top 10 risks for EM investors. My own ignorant opinion?
1. Bullshit.

2. Yeah maybe, but I don't expect contagion or anything. The Chinese government isn't stupid like the US government is.

3. The success of the 30% rollover this year is something interesting to think about. Risk is probably grossly overpriced and we might be at a tipping point. Then again, as above, the Chinese government knows this.

4. Disappointment? What about success? India and Indonesia are grossly overbought for what they are, and only because of election betting. A Modi win could see the market puke 20%. Capital has no clue about the proper timing of things.

5. Dafuq? Who cares about sub-Saharan Africa?

6. Yes, Russia's economy is fucked.

7. Venezuela and Argentina? Seriously? Again, who the fuck cares?

8. Yes. That's the elephant that everyone is ignoring.

9. If Mexico is simply a branch plant of the US, you shouldn't be worried about Mexico.

10. Yes, that's probably a secular thing that you'll have to deal with over the next decade as EMs have to pull out all the stops to keep their economies alive.

Mining.com - matchmaking miners with China's $7T in savings. The exciting bit for me was the "China has $7 trillion in savings". That means a lot for a country. However, Cecilia, you might want to consider how much of that money actually exists, and how much could vanish if there is a radical risk repricing in shadow finance.

3 comments:

  1. I know Stockhouse is shite, but this might constitute a new low in the "let's pump and dump some crap" game. http://www.stockhouse.com/news/bulletins/2014/04/08/bitcoin-play-winrock-resources-c-wr-changes-name-to-newnote-financial-corp

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The entire "bullboard" consists of guys going "this baby's about to fly to the moon!!!"

      It makes comedy writing redundant.

      Delete