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Thursday, April 17, 2014

IKN vs Mickeyman on the gold poll


Sigh....

IKN - excellent news for the price of gold next week! Where he notes:
the news just out from Kitco that its band of self-appointed experts on the gold price has turned collectively bearish on the price of gold next week is good news indeed for those of us looking for higher gold prices.
But Mickeyman had a better take on the Kitco gold price poll:

World Complex - you too can be a gold expert, where he notes that the Kitco gold price poll actually correlates pretty darn well (looks like r>.5 to me) with the previous week's price action in gold:


So what Kitco's poll is actually saying is that the price of gold went down this week.

PS: Mickeyman, wanna calculate r for that graph?


6 comments:

  1. Which is nice, but not useful. The contrary indicator is noisier, but it offers a 2/3 win ratio (esp on the strong signal weeks), those are odds you take all day.

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    Replies
    1. And lagging indicators usually aren't useful.

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  2. I did--if I recall, r^2 was just above 0.5

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  3. I test Otto's assertion here: http://www.worldcomplex.blogspot.ca/2014/04/are-kitco-gold-experts-contrary.html

    I notice that Kitco does not have any openings for gold experts on its careers page. Yet.

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    Replies
    1. I'm starting to think that of the three of us in this convo, one of the three has never taken a stats class.

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    2. oh absolutely, and i'm loving all that dirty R talk. So just carry on.

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