Tuesday, March 11, 2014

The morning metalloblogosphere disinformation campaign

Here's your morning round of disinformation, meant to keep you off balance as I snaffle up the best prices while telling the greenhorns to be cautious.

And personally, I'd rather be a member of the newwaveoblogosphere.

Anyway, here's some lies:

Bespoke - consumer discretionary comes roaring back. Seems the tech play is so last year, and this year you need to buy things like consumer and banking stocks: exactly the stocks that would invalidate the doomer thesis.

The Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - the easy money myth. Wherein he whines about how hard it's actually been to just buy SPY and walk away for 5 years. Quote:
It’s been one of the hardest environments in market history. Never before have investors’ wounds been so raw. Never before have there been so many voices polluting the popular consciousness with half-baked conspiracy theories and calls for collapse. Never have there been such a dizzying array of investment vehicle options to confuse and confound. Never have the perceived risks been quite as ferocious.

In the last five years, investors have dealt with a non-functioning congress, a downgrade of the US Treasury, mass unemployment, exploding deficits, record debt, a possible dissolution of Europe and a slow-motion crash in China and the emerging markets – and that’s before we even get into any specifics. And not only have the threats been unprecedented, the amplification of them – thanks to the desperation of the mainstream media for attention coupled with the advent of a whole new chattering class on social media – has been like an orchestra of clanging pots and pans, car alarms and doberman barks, shrieks and howls, thunder and lightning. Every step of the way some motherf*cker’s been screaming about something about to crash, the calamity waiting around the corner, the next shoe to drop.

And I’m not even including the individual siren songs of all the charlatans – the Black Swan hypochondriacs, the long-shorts and market-neutrals who couldn’t outperform the interest on a checking account, the macro newsletter geriatrics who’ve wasted hours of your life with their freestyle declinist noodling, the televised shoutfests, the player-haters at the newspaper who couldn’t wait to remind you how bad everything “really” was, the alarmist bloggers who’ve had free reign to say basically anything with zero recourse, the political operatives posing as economics experts, and on and on. Your ability to stiff-arm them all as you’ve nudged your way just a bit further toward retirement is to be commended.
Hey! That kinda sounds like the beginning of a secular bull market, eh? It's certainly not the mindset that you'd expect at the end of a cyclical bear rally, is it?

Faux News - does MtGox CEO still control all those stolen bitcoins? The allegation being made here is that he's only pretending to have lost all that Monopoly money, when really he's still got it all. All I have to say is this: you libertarians are sure hitting a home run with every new cryptocurrency story.

IKN - not worried about iron ore prices. So he says the drop in iron ore is just due to a "blown up spec play in China or something".

Mining.com - copper, iron ore take huge hits. So Frik Els points out that coking coal prices have also collapsed, and worse, quote:
The steelmaking raw material plummeted 8.3% to the lowest since October 2012 after rumours of the collapse of a large mill sent shivers through the sector and plunge in imports of iron ore of more than 25 million tonnes in February.
Now, mills are supposed to be collapsing in China: the government is threatening to radically cut the country's massive oversupply. But there's also supposed to be no reduction in demand going on, because new mills are popping up faster than the government can shut down old ones. So why a 25Mt drop in imports? Hm? Well, IKN responds with:

IKN - la la la, I'm not listening, la la la, I can't hear you. Hey, I'm not saying gold is going to go down! I'm just saying that a Chinese liquidation binge is something you should definitely stay on the lookout for, because gold might follow. Cuz I figger while gold goes up, it would be a generally good idea to pay attention to the possibility of downside risks. Because if gold continued going up despite the end of the EM/commodity secular bull play, that would not be typical. For a commodity, anyway.

I eagerly await IKN's counterargument to the prediction of an Indian drought this year, by the way.


  1. This is all very well and nice but I am not as convinced as either PS Dave or Otto seem to be. I thought it was fairly accepted that the recent surge in gold and gold stocks have been more to do with recent short covering.

    Trader Dan, I just found out, actually has a whole post about it with some nice fancy ol' graphs.

    1. How did I get dragged into this? I am not bullish on miners, in fact I got more mining stocks to go in sheltered accounts that I need the price to go up a bit so I can sell them flat.
      If anything I am short. This relief rally has run its course.

      Not much has changed, just wait until Q1 financials come out and you will see how every mining CEO has talked out their ass about cut backs blah blah blah...they (the CEO's) are experts at telling the market what they want to hear.

      I am playing more oil and gas stocks now.

  2. Sorry..I was lazy and wanted two people for my argument and took a gamble.

    1. It's always a good strategy to invite PSDave to an argument.

    2. Dave's investing style has now been thoroughly disciplined by Rick Rule's hard assets.