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Tuesday, March 25, 2014

LIBERTARIAN RULES FOR MONOPOLY, DOW THEORY BORKENED, TIPS YIELD WILL STAY BELOW 1%: here's what you need to know


Here's a few more newsbits:


Bespoke - Dow Theory is borkened. Whoops! Pursuant to my post about the Transports from earlier today, apparently $TRAN outperformance has now become a signal the market is about to puke, and not a disconfirmation of $SPX weakness.



USA Today - fear of rising rates overblown? It's dumb but it has to be repeated: rising rates right now is good, because it means normalization of monetary policy.


Mining.com - this is the scariest gold chart you'll see all day. Hoo boy, it's the TIPS vs gold chart again:

OK, so this chart tells me that if gold will never go below $1200 because it'll destroy supply and generate new demand, then that means the TIPS yield can never go over 1%.

What's that? You're saying I'm reading the chart wrong? No, that's exactly what the chart says. Without a mechanism to explain how the independent variable causes the dependent variable, all you're left with is an unexplained correlation, and unexplained correlation goes both ways buddy.

And funny enough, it fits in well with what Krugman's been saying, that there's too much capital and not enough guaranteed rent opportunities, and that the rentier class should no longer expect to make >1% a year risk-free for doing nothing.


Mineweb - Kinross reminds Harper that, um, you think maybe you could not, y'know, encourage Russia to nationalize our gold mines? I find it very funny that Kinross is saying "think of the poor pensioners who own our stock". Why should Harper care? I mean Kinross' shitty stock is down 75% in the past 3 years, right? The pensioners who owned Kinross have already been fucked.


New York Times - Monopoly invites new rules. It's been forever since I played, but here's an option: One person gets to play "the poors".

1. Whenever you pay a tax or a fine, it goes to "the poors" and not the bank. Because sociamalism.
2. Whenever "the poors" land on a square with your real estate, you lose one house due to dropping property values, rent control, and vandalism.
3. Whenever you land on the same square as "the poors", they rob you of $50.
4. Every turn you're in jail, you have to pay "the poors" $50 in protection, else you gonna get raped.
5. Every time "the poors" pass "Go", they collect their $200 from the other players (not the bank) because taxation is theft.
6. "The poors" draw no chance or community chest cards, pay no taxes, and go to jail on every double (except if already in jail) for "driving while poor".
7. "The poors" don't get to own anything ever. Any money they do have is assumed spent on booze, drugs, lottery tickets and fatty foods.
8. Once a player is bankrupted, they become another of "the poors".
9. "The poors" are already bankrupted but they're still on the board, because Paul Ryan hasn't built the gas chambers yet.


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