Friday, March 21, 2014


Here's some stuff for the weekend:

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - tops, bottoms, and middles. Here's one for that TA clown who thinks the US is about to slip into another massive crash. Quote:
Because most of the time things are not bottoming or topping.  They are middle-ing.  They are churning or they are trending.  Most of the time there is no inflection point at hand – these are rare occurrences.  So to focus on them to such a great degree is probably a distraction and definitely a waste of time.  And energy and emotion.

Calculated Risk - ATA trucking index up 2.8% in February. Here's a chart:

All you bears out there should ponder how the US market can possibly be "overvalued" if trucking tonnage is ~10% higher than it was in 2005-07.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - new all-time highs. He feels he has to repeat it because nobody was fucking listening the last time. What does "new all-time highs" mean? Quote:
When a stock hits an all-time high it means that people were willing to pay a price that no one before them has ever paid.

It means that no one has a loss in the stock or is “waiting to get back to even so they can sell”.

It means that a host of people who had been waiting for that pullback to get in are now ripping their own skin off in aggravation.

It means that it is the new favorite stock of those who are long, one that they will not easily part with because it is now “one of their winners” and it “has been good to them”.

It means the people who “bought small” are pissed even though they are up, these are the people sitting just below the offer like Tick Tock the crocodile loitering below Captain Hook’s gangplank – just waiting for a bite.

It means that every single analyst downgrade or estimate revision lower or silly piece of neutral commentary has been instantly invalidated – it all meant nothing and was a waste of ink.

It means that everyone who sold along the way, in varying degrees of course, was wrong – even if they were up big.

It means that any and all media carping over the company’s “fundamentals”, “model”, “management” or “outlook” were a total and utter waste of time and energy.

It means that these are the stocks that will be brought back to life the fastest from the depths of any market-wide sell-off or correction as they are now the hot money names.
But no, no, you go ahead and buy stocks that are down 50%, go on.

FT beyond brics - Indian elections, where old men and dynasties vie for power. Parties don't really even matter - in India, it's what's the party affiliation of the rich family that gave away the most presents to the townspeople. - Goldman Sachs still sees gold price falling 20% by year-end. Their reasoning? China is going to collapse, India won't be buying more gold, and something about (sigh) TIPS. Ignore.

FT beyond brics - on the commodity super-cycle. Dear HSBC: did you know your chief economist for Australia and New Zealand failed first-year economics? I mean, how else can we explain a guy who looks at commodity prices from only the demand side and completely ignores supply? There's a reason Ags don't act like metals: you can always plant more coffee, you can always get more yield from farmland. However, mine grade continually goes down.

Oh and you might also want to buy him a copy of Jim Rogers' Hot Commodities, so he can learn why commodity prices don't go up in an EM secular bear market.

This isn't fucking rocket science.

PS Dave - Goldcorp punts the ball to April. They've "extended their offer" til April 4th, which to me means they really aren't all that interested in buying Osisko. But Otto has a different take in the comments section:
This is surely more about OSK's "Hey, loads of others looking at us" comment of earlier this week. With this GG plays a round of the poker game and says "Well OK, if there's a White Knight then let's give him all the time he needs".

AKA shit or get off the pot. Maybe tedious, but GG is playing the right strategy here. If nobody shows, it'll take just one (prob. moderate) sweetener for bigfish to eat littlefish.
We'll see!

1 comment:

  1. Gold

    It fell hard off the top of the channel. But looks to me like 1200 is support which is what a few analysts I respect have said as well. Which doesn't mean support can't be taken out.

    "More broadly, we believe that with tapering of the Fed’s QE, US economic releases are back to being a key driving force behind gold prices. As a result, we expect that the decline in gold prices will likely be data dependent, in contrast to our 2013 bearish gold view which was driven by the disconnect between stretched long gold speculative positioning and stabilizing US growth."

    The New York-based bank also poured cold water on suggestions that renewed Asian demand will give the price a boost saying a "surprise to the upside" is unlikely reports Kitco:

    “While we see potential for these shifts to reverse in 2014, we estimate the net impact will not be meaningful to our gold outlook as: (1) India’s potential easing of gold import tariffs will likely remain modest given how much lower gold imports have contributed to its improved trade balance, (2) [In China} we expect a gradual unwind of gold backed financing deals,” Goldman said.