Monday, March 10, 2014

Evening news

Here's some evening reading:

Calculated Risk - more employment graphs. Read 'em and weep.

Ritholtz - current bull market second-strongest since WWII. If you don't own it, you have to ask how you expect to be making money.

Calculated Risk - framing lumber prices. Confirmation that people are still building houses. Thus, again, I don't get where you're getting this "2014 top" bullshit from.

BI - why the Chinese market got ANNIHILATED. But seriously though, this is a Mamta Badkar story so you can take it seriously because she's not a toad like Joey the Weasel. Takeaways from the article: it's not just the crap trade numbers, there was also credit deterioration. And quote:
"If a default indeed occurs (especially on principal), we believe that the market will have reached the Bear Stearns stage (when the market started to seriously re-assess subprime debt risk)," wrote Bank of America's David Cui in a note to clients.

"We doubt that the financial system in China will experience a liquidity crunch immediately because of this default but we think the chain reaction will probably start."

Barclays' Jian Chang and Serena Zhou think the systemic risk from the default is small but "expect more but selective defaults, more risks to be exposed, and greater financial market volatilities this year."

Again, it's not the idea that a financial collapse is imminent, but that the cogs are now in motion
I'd say that it's not whether there's actual "systemic risk"; the danger is the sudden urge to re-price the risk that's always been there. That was how mortgage-backed securities went kaboom. It'll be interesting to see how the Chinese government responds. - iron ore craters 8%. First copper, now iron? Gee... I wonder if gold's next?

IKN - and a jolly good morning to the rip-off artist at Haywood. For fuck's sake, guys! Anyone who reads his blog recognizes an IKN bar graph! They always use the exact same fonts and bar formats.

Though I can understand you not wanting to credit him. After all, he's the candirĂº of the junior mining scene whereas you're trying to pretend that Haywood has serious analysis.

Though I could also understand him retaliating by posting your weekly mailers for free on his blog, with sarcastic commentary added, until you do credit him. I mean, that's what I'd do. But maybe he's nicer than that.


  1. No, i'm not nicer than that. In fact i'm exactly that.

    And by the way, that thing about swimming up the pee stream is a total myth. A goodun, but a myth.

    1. Don't care, you still won't see me swimming in the Amazon basin.

    2. This guy credited you. Maybe Haywood stole it from him.

  2. Nop, that was afterwards and done correctly.