Monday, February 24, 2014

Monday news

Someone reddited an old blog post of mine from last fall about the "Satanic" mutilation of ponies on Dartmoor, so I'm getting a bit of traffic now.

Here's the midday market news:

Calculated Risk - housing weakness: temporary or enduring? I'll spoil the ending for you: temporary.

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators summary. He sees weakness. But I guess the rest of the market does too.

Krugginator - the myth of German austerity. Quote:
Public service announcement: Never, ever make claims about a country’s economic policies (or actually anything about economics) on the basis of what you think you've heard people say. Yes, you often hear people talking about austerity, and the Germans are big on praising and demanding austerity. But have they actually imposed a lot of it on themselves? Not so much.
But it's a typical racist belief, and therefore it's accepted as true by most people. - China's credit crisis could spell dooooom for iron ore. Something to keep your eyes open for. Maybe a collateralized base metals selling crisis will drive a move back down for gold? Heck, maybe those thousands of tons of gold that China's bought are part of that collateralization system, and any weakness can spill over into selling of gold too? Watch out, it might happen.

Mineweb - we're approaching a low demand month for gold. If you care about gold demand cycles, this article has the chart for you. March typically sucks, and with PDAC coming up this weekend the traditional portfolio management approach is to sell out your position in every single miner by Friday noon. Gold shouldn't be exciting again until July - and even then things might get bad if there's a bad year for crops in India. Or that China thing above.

Bonddad - ECRI sticking to its call that the US has been in a recession for years now. Here's the money shot:
In summary, ECRI appears to have descended to the level of Zero Hedge in trying to salvage their reputation. Sad.
Maybe ECRI are a bunch of hardcore Republicans, and therefore they're constrained by their politicoreligious dogma to insist that Obama has destroyed America, even when the data disagrees? In which case, we can just ignore them.

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