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Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Lunchtime news


Here's some stuff:

Ritholtz - over 400 days without a correction. Here's a chart:


FWIW, my personal opinion? All you know is we haven't had a correction in a while. Maybe this means you should buy only after a correction is done? But when can you be sure of this? And do you get a better "in" price than the price that you sold at to raise cash in preparation for an upcoming correction? Therefore, quit trying to be clever. The above chart isn't actionable.


Calculated Risk - private investment and the business cycle. A lot of charts, and here's the money shot:
Nothing is perfect, but residential investment suggests further growth. Add in the improvement in household balance sheets, some contribution from state and local governments, and even some increase in non-residential structures in 2014 - and the economy should continue to grow - and probably at a somewhat faster pace.

Calculated Risk - housing starts and the unemployment rate. OK, he is in stark and unambiguous disagreement with New Deal Democrat's housing-driven slowdown call for 2014. I really hope someone passes NDD a link to this article, because it seems to me that McBride's charts completely and utterly disagree with NDD's:


Where the hell is the slowdown in housing? Is it that tiny downtick at the end of the line? The trend is still strongly upwards; it seems to me NDD's year-over-year chart is generating false information out of the intra-month noise.

I would hate to start discounting Bonddad Blog analysis, since otherwise he's pretty good (outside of his ETF chart analysis which doesn't really yield any useful information about world economies, despite what he seems to suggest). So we'll have to see if McBride's chart gets addressed in the next few days.


FT beyond brics - Pakistan trying to stem the gold flows to India. Avantika mentions what I have been saying for the past several months:
For the Indian government there is an, albeit superficial, advantage to taking these inflows off the formal accounts. Official gold and silver imports have dropped some 70 per cent to just $1.8bn in the month of December – which has helped deficit data.
To clarify, the Indian gold restrictions didn't do anything to stop gold flows; it just was a way for the government to fudge their books. Got that?


PS Dave - VRIC 2014 review. With all your Cookie news:
I got a chance to meet Brent Cook, we both concurred that this relief rally was almost done and nothing has changed in the past 4 weeks. [...]

I apologize to Brent as I was going to put his presentation up on the blog, now I will have to see if Cambridge House did a video, it was worth listening too. He broad strokes of it was more the same for 2014 but 2105 will be a good year. Just like the miners are high grading at this time, so should the investor and get the best in class for this sector. He talked about the all in costs for most miners and at this mornings $1242/ounce the majority are still losing money. Do the fund and hedge guys know this or is this rally just a short term trade?

Brent slammed International Tower Hill and Colossus Minerals. He went through a bunch of deposits that will never see the light of day.

Yahoo Finacne - Colossus Minerals announces delisting. And so the stock goes to zero. I suspect that this, along with Fire Steve Letwin Mining's unfortunate earnings announcement today, could be what's giving the GDXJ bunnies pause; they've suddenly realized that most junior miners still really, really suck and they should be a little more picky with what they're buying.

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