Monday, January 13, 2014

A bit of evening news

Here's a bit more reading:

FT Alphaville - Worse than the Great Depression? More on the silliness of CAPE. The blogger at Philosophical Economics who started this skewering of CAPE is even more devastating:
Does it make sense that earnings would have contracted more in the 2008 recession than in the Great Depression (highlighted in green), a downturn that was 6 times as severe in real terms, 10 times as severe in nominal terms? In the Great Depression, NIPA profits actually went negative. They fell by more than 100%. We can only imagine the earnings calamity that would have ensued if current accounting regulations had been in existence at the time: every intangible asset in the entire economy would have had to have been written down.
Read the entire FT article, then the Philosophical Economics article. When you're done, you'll want to quit reading anyone who's still blathering on about CAPE as an indicator of a market top.

Reuters - AAP shelves foreign supermarket entry into Delhi. Uh-oh... is this a bad sign for India's economy? I'm also concerned about the BJP being similarly economically nationalist.

World Complex - a bunch of squiggly lines in phase space pertaining to gold or something. I guess the quick pop from the 1100 isoquant to the 1400 was evidence of a bubble, if you could stipulate that gold isn't supposed to jump that fast. (Please, let me know whether I'm the only person in the world who [thinks he] understands this stuff.) I would only suggest to Mickeyman that if gold really had that much to do with the US dollar, it shouldn't have gone even from 600 to 1100, should it? I mean, either it's the antidollar or it's not, right?

Chronicles of Brodrick - 5 big stories about gold. Seems he reads my blog. And agrees with me. Hopefully this doesn't become popular.

And as an aside, looking at an old Vancouver Venture post, I wonder how much of the junior gold miner buying right now is being driven by people who took their tax loss in early December and now want to buy back? And how pissed off are going to be the people who took their loss later in December and now can't buy back as these stocks climb back up?

Market wants to fuck people over as much as possible. Gold and the miners going up right now will accomplish that.


  1. The charts show most sell off was in the first week of December allowing the funds to flow back in in the past week. But once this is buying is done and gold is still $1250 and the Osisko/ Goldcorp deal is the only game, then what?

  2. If gold is the antidollar, the entire chart would plot on one isoquant.

  3. BTW, do you really think I understand this stuff? I'm groping in the dark looking for a light.

    1. Your charts are gold rorschachs. I see a charging bull. Although it might be a wolf, so I don't know. There looks to be a cartoon caveman guy throwing a rock on the right there. That would be a gold bug I guess.