In your opinion, what does this blog need more of?

Saturday, August 17, 2013

Cute guinea pig videos


I figured not only are these cute, the videos will also make Peruvians hungry.







I had one when I was a little kid. They really do nothing but eat. In fact they can poop while they eat, and they also do nothing but poop. Except also eating.

And they do take some time out for sleeping.

S&P threatens support, USTs shunned, Sensex collapses: here's what you need to know



Here is the news you need to finish the week, Weisenthal-style:

Bespoke - S&P 500 back to neutral. Several sectors have fallen to their SMA(50), and the 10-day A/D line is now sharply oversold, on speculation that the Fed will end tapering and instantly jack up interest rates in September.

BI - hedge funds bet big against treasuries. The CoT showed a tripling of UST shorts in just one week, as the 10Y yield skyrocketed to a never-before-seen 2.8% in a massive repudiation of debt. It is universally agreed that these UST short positions are guaranteed to make the hedge funds money, just like the shorts against the yen did a couple months ago.

Reuters - Sensex drops 770 points on capital controls. Again, fears of an end to US stimulus are reasoned as being behind the collapse, since India exports so much to the US and isn't an inept medieval agrarian society that lets food rot in granaries instead of selling it.

FT Alphaville - Indian misery index. India has actually been on a negative trajectory since 2009.

The Guardian - Republicans' big problem with crazy. It is also a sure bet that the Republican party is about to nuke the US economy, by shutting down Congress and refusing to extend the debt ceiling. This will also destroy the world.

Friday, August 16, 2013

On using my psychological weaknesses to my advantage


I tend to trade too much, and to think that I have any sort of read on intraday moves. Really I'm just another stupid herd animal.

I've started to use that disadvantage to my advantage.

What I do is watch, predict, and then do nothing.

If the market turns around and goes the other way, then not only do I give myself another example of why I shouldn't day-trade; I also learn something about the psychology behind the market.

Because I'm pretty sure there are a lot of other people with my psychology out there, even amongst the Wall Streeters. Someone's gotta be on the losing side of all these trades, right?

So, here's an example of what I do.

Today, if I see silver break down at any time below yesterday's close, then I would expect it to give back at least half of yesterday's gains. So in the old days I might short SLV today at about $22 (by buying HZD at that SLV price).

But these days I won't do that. I'll instead watch SLV, and see what happens if/when it does break down. Does it then turn around and go back up? Does it just do a false move, then fly to a new daily high?

That'll tell me that there's enough long bias in silver to wash out any shorts. Because I would have shorted: which means other people really did short, and then they all got their asses handed to them.

That is useful information to know; it tells me silver is still a long play and not something for me to worry about. The market is killing shorts, therefore stay long.

If instead the breakdown works, and then it keeps going down? That tells me more money is shorting silver, which means the shorts include at least a few smart people - enough to drive the price down, anyway. Once there are enough people to drive down silver, I'm going to want to stand aside.

In sum, I've learned that the information I get by constructing a theory, doing nothing, and then just watching for confirmation or disconfirmation is way more useful to me than any possible $200 day-trade win, because it gives me more confidence about long-term holds like BCM or SVL. Basically, I've stepped out of my own mind, and am reading the larger mind of the market.

The point is, you make money by being with the market, not against it.

That's my belief, anyway.

Postscript on the previous


Note, however, that the sensible, usual thing you'd see today is SLV and GLD giving back all or most of yesterday's post-12:45 gains.

It's Friday and who wants to hold PMs over the weekend? God knows people in Egypt might start being nice to each other, or Iran might kiss and make up with Israel, and all of a sudden people might think that has something to do with gold.

People also have an opportunity to cash up on their recent wins, if they have any from getting in earlier.

This PM market must have some serious PTSD from the past 2 years.

I'm only sayin'.

So let's see if this sensible back-and-fill doesn't happen, eh?

A note on shorting the miners


I just have to say this about shorting.

Here's a chart of GLD:


It has a long way to run to correct gold's collapse through $1500, if you're of the opinion that move was bullshit. But it's started by printing a long white candle with decent-sized volume, and has hit its +2SD line. We haven't seen such a big white candle in a long time.

That looks very strong to me, and I'm all of a sudden very bullish miners.

Now here's GDXJ, which is an ETF that indiscriminately holds every piece of garbage with under $2B market cap:


It's seen 6 days of good volume, essentially 6 white candles, and has gone beyond the +2SD line.

That means every piece of crap out there is being bought, indiscriminately, if for no other reason than it's part of an index ETF. Companies who can't mine at a profit, companies with development properties that could never be mined at under $2000 gold and would never be bought by a major, companies full of people who don't even know how to run a mine and who tell baldfaced lies to mining analysts.

They're all being bought, if for no other reason than the ETF is buying.

Now here's GLDX, an ETF made up of bankrupt worthless explorecos:


Really good, increasing buying volume here. Go look up GLDX's constituents and you'll find the worst of the worst: they're bankrupt, they have nothing but moose pasture, their executives are lying thieves who pay themselves huge salaries without any justification.

All this stuff is being bought.

This is such a positive market right now that I really wouldn't want to short anything, no company whatsoever, unless maybe it was an obvious scam on the pinksheets that was utterly guaranteed to go to $0 within a known timeframe.

This advance will tire itself out eventually. When? When gold hits $1500? How about $1400? Who knows? Maybe the PM companies will even advance with a level gold price.

Indian wedding season is starting soon and the farmers are going to have a bumper crop; the Chinese economy is apparently not collapsing (if you trust the signal from their stock markets), and that means Chinese people will continue buying gold too. August to February is gold bull season.

Here's a chart for proof:


You believe charts, don't you?

Meanwhile all the sellers are gone. Even Paulson cut back on his position in Q2 (whether or not he's put it back on is a piece of info we'll have to wait a few months for). GLD is back below 1000 tonnes. Who's left to sell?

I was lucky to get back into the miners earlier than today; I actually was less cautious than I should have been. But it turns out it was a good move. If I were even more cautious a person, yesterday's candle would have been all the justification I'd need to get back long.

I wouldn't short this, at least until I saw some weakness in gold. One big down day with volume? The price backing off to the Bollinger mean or the EMA(10)? Let me know when either of those happen and I'll become less bullish.

But right now this looks too damn good on the long side. And suicidal on the short side.

Friday videos - more Steely Dan


It's summer music, so let's hear more Steely Dan:




A modest proposal - Blog Like You're Weisenthal Week


So apparently August 25th is Joe Weisenthal's birthday.

In appreciation of Joey's years of shameless click-whoring, I declare the week of August 18-25 to be Blog Like You're Weisenthal Week.

If you're a blogger, all you have to do is make sure every headline is in all-caps and includes phrases like "DESTROYED" or "ANNIHILATED" to describe e.g. a 0.4% loss on the S&P 500.

Especially irrelevant data points should come with a photo of something like a nuclear explosion or a crashed train.

Broader news summaries (like what I do) all have to come with a completely fucking irrelevant picture of a hot chick.

Another great source of WeisenNews is any price target propounded by some analyst clown. Make sure you post a bullish one (e.g. DOW 50,000) right after an apocalyptic one (NASDAQ To Collapse And Humanity To Revert To Neolithic Hunter-Gathering, Says Marc Faber/Albert Edwards/Jim Kunstler/Eric Sprott).

Also feel free to post meaningless bits of trivia about Hollywood personalities, to the extent you can do it without clawing your own fucking brains out and throwing them at the wall like so much monkey poo.

Make sure to pad out each article to at least 500 words!

Slideshows are even better for maximum clicks.

If we can get enough blogs to join in, maybe we can turn it into a movement or something.

Come on! It'll be fun!

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Four newsbits of utter goldbuggery


Get yourself goldbuggered today!

Reuters - investors pull out of gold. Sorry, but I find the other numbers interesting... like how all this investor gold has been turned into bangles for Indian housewives.

Reuters - WGC says demand from India and China could reach 1000t each. There are a lot of Indian marriage and festival dates in October and November. This year, most of these happy occasions will be taking place in the smoking rubble left from the collapse of the rupee.

Globe and Mail - Sprott on why gold's going to $2400 next year. This guy's a wackaloon. But maybe you want to read him for the kool-aid taste he leaves in your mouth.

IKN - Sprott physical silver fund numbers. Um... does that second chart mean it's trading at a discount to physical silver finally?



Silver miners to buy?


Obviously I like Silvercrest, I've said I like Eric Fier, I like him even more now that he's lectured the entire mining community on how to build a mine, and someone on the boards (I think) said the silver value of what's sitting in their waste pile alone is more than their market cap.

So I sold some BCM in the past few days (bought at $1.78 so you can't fault me), and bought a bit of SVL.

But what else is there in silver miner world to buy? FR looks too expensive to me. The ideal would have been springing for those Sep 2013 SLW warrants at $1, but unfortunately I was too chicken and missed out on what so far would have been a 400% profit.

I wouldn't touch Silvercorp with my worst enemy's dick.


Hecla's chart sucks so much it's hilarious. But doesn't that mean it has farther to run? And the weekly has popped above the EMA.

Anything else for me to look at? Producers preferably.

Newsbits



More stuff. Excuse me, by the way, if my running gold news again is making you itch in your butt.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - the cokeheads want a crash. "The infants who populate Wall Street's trading floors cannot look across the valley and see the benefits of being in a non-emergency recovery on the other side. Their main concern right now is not having the stimulus tit ripped from between their suckling lips."

Bespoke - homebuilder sentiment rises in spite of rising rates. Because people aren't going to stop buying homes just because a mortgage goes for 4.5% now. And do you think the homebuilders are stupid? I don't think they're stupid.

Michael Shaoul - NAHB sentiment index. He wants to wait for confirmation from the next new home sales data. I guess it's okay, since homebuilders should have more to run than today's 1%.

Mining.com - consumer demand for gold jumps 50% led by Asia. But of course that filthy jew Weisenthal doesn't run this story, does he?

Mineweb - Paulson sold half his GLD in Q2. When Paulson quits, you know the bottom is in, eh? I mean, who's left to sell now?

Mining.com - India bans gold coins, medallions; vow to check teeth at border for gold fillings. It's just getting stupid now, and Chidambaram's totally lost it.

Mineweb - SLV holdings rise to highest in 4 months. Have no idea why though. Chicky-poo at UBS says it correlates positively with economic output, so I guess she hasn't gotten the spiel yet about how it's a monetary metal or whatever the hell.

Hard to read this situation



Hard to read if today's market action is just a snit.

Here's why:


Homebuilders are really screaming about not going gently into that good night. Good volume and an attempt to negate the H&S breakdown, no?



And meanwhile Ford is puking.

Both stocks should do well if the US economy recovers and workers have more money, no?

I guess Ford is more EM-exposed. But that can't be it.

And none of this bullshit you're reading on BI today has anything to do with Europe, and yet the Euro periphery is down.

Hard to tell what's going on, which makes me think it's just a snit.

Breaking news


Ten thousand fewer people lost their jobs in the US this week so the logical response is for world markets to lose a hundred billion dollars in market cap.

For a better perspective, stick your head up the ass of some coked-out hedge fund wackaloon. Cos that's where this makes sense.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Evacuate Earth!


OMG teh Earth is destroyzorzed!



It's a National Geographic Channel documentary show on building a giant interstellar spaceship to escape Earth.

Problems:

1. If they really were aiming for genetic diversity of the founder population, there should have been a lot more black people on that ship. Sorry, but Africa's where our species' genetic diversity is!

2. Are you really going to assemble a 10 mile long by 2 mile wide cylinder entirely out of equipment made on the earth? I doubt enough propellant material exists on earth to lift that much mass into space.

As for the second point, I'll make my contribution to saving the human race below. And if it never makes it off this blog, and you all eventually get exterminated by a neutron star, that'll teach humanity for not paying attention to my genius all these years!

Seems kinda funny that you'd build bulk material like the structural stuff on the earth, then assemble in space. And this is one place where "asteroid mining" makes sense. Why not simply take a very big asteroid, and then hollow it out? After all, that gives you the bulk you need, plus (with a silicate asteroid) maybe some of the low-atomic-mass volatiles like H and O, plus the silicates you need to make soil. Plus the bulk shields the people inside from radiation.

OK sure, the point is eventually you want to move all that mass out of the solar system, and now that means you have a problem optimizing ship size to the propulsion system. Well, choose the right size asteroid - no reason to take Vesta with us.

Though that would be fucking awesome.

There are probably structural engineering problems with using a silicate asteroid, though. You're trying to transmit thrust force from the back through the entire ship, without simply shooting the back right out the front. Do silicates hold up? The smaller the asteroid, probably the less it's held together. Would you want to use an iron-nickel asteroid instead? That'd be harder to hollow out, though, and it'd have much less of the low-atomic-mass chemicals that we'd need to survive.

Maybe you can send the chosen asteroid on a grazing flyby orbit of the Sun and melt it into slag, and then hollow it out when it comes back? Would that help? Then again, I don't know if solids go straight to gas when heated in zero-pressure.

In any case, it'd save you a fuckton of propellant if you can just take space stuff, heat it in space, form it in space, and then maybe just melt it together in space. Then lift the weird fiddly stuff like electronics and yogurt and pr0n from the earth up to the ship in rockets.

There's no damn reason the ship has to look pretty on the outside. And it doesn't have to be aerodynamic. It has to distribute the thrust force, and it has to be able to retain structural integrity under centripetal rotation. Other than that, it has to do the job of not falling apart for 100 years, and holding the atmosphere in.

In fact, know what? I betcha, if there is any alien intelligent life flying from star to star out there, that their ships look like big slag-heaps. Cos that's the most sensible thing to do.

Anyway, it sounds like something that would have to get prototyped in detail. And I think we should round up all the rich people on the planet and offer them our undying gratitude if they could please build a prototype ship - something smaller - that they can live on. They can stock it up with food, and put hydroponic farms in, and maybe even raise livestock cos after all they've got the money and it's not like we're trying to make it the most efficient use of space for human transportation like in this TV show.

They can even make it a tax-free zone. Heck, they can establish a libertarian society on their prototype ark ship, with limited-to-no government and private security forces.

We could maybe ask Doug Casey to lead it:

Doug Casey: saviour of humanity, space pioneer, not a dickhead?
Except that as far as rich people go, he's comparatively dirt fucking poor.

And I sincerely doubt that the really rich people with the wherewithal to build a prototype interstellar generational ship would be able to put up with him for a second.

Could you just imagine Casey on a ship with George Soros, Warren Buffett and Bill Gates?

Then again, maybe Casey could serve as pool-boy for a special "special-personality billionaires" list that could include the Koch brothers, Michael Bloomberg, the Walton family, Prince Alaweed al-Saud, most of the Russian oligarchs, and maybe a few billionaire dictators like Hosni Mobarak and Gadhafi's descendants.

In fact, maybe we should try to convince all these fine upstanding examples of the highest nobility of humanity that this would be a good idea.

So we could get the fuck rid of them.

All our heroes were on BNN today


Here's The Clive, from B2Gold, talking about how awesome he is:

part 1 part 2

B2 is running at $1000 all-in sustaining costs for gold. And he points out what a great employer they've been in Nicaragua, and talks about the local informals and how he's managed to cut deals with most of them except for the loony ones.

There's also a surprise appearance in the interview by Fire Steve Letwin, CEO of firesteveletwin.com, with a muscle shirt and chinstrap I shit you not. The Clive basically calls him a dick.

And he brags about how B2 doesn't have to take a penny of writedowns at today's gold price, cos The Clive is too awesome for that. So quit selling B2Gold stock you morons!

And here's Nolan Watson, who obviously isn't nearly as awesome as The Clive cos he only got one segment on the show:

part the only

He talks about his Premier Gold buyout. And he notes that SSL's "all-in sustaining capital costs" are only $400 an ounce, nyah nyah Clive.

You can tell this "G&A reductions" thing is a fucking fad that's swept through the entire junior mining industry when Watson's talking about G&A reduction at Sandstorm. What, you going to sell your filing cabinet to the local pawn shop and then lease it back?

And none of Sandstorm's projects have been materially delayed, not even Colossus, so quit selling Sandstorm you morons!


GLD and SLV say different things


There's SLV, gapping over the SMA(50) and running +2SD on what looks to be increasing volume.



Meanwhile it looks like no-one told gold when to run; it's missed the starting gun (cue Gilmour guitar solo).

What makes silver want to move differently from gold? Might the market actually be thinking that silver demand will increase with the recovery of the high-tech economies of the West, while supply might go down as demand for base-metal products dwindles cos of the stagnation of the East?

Or is this just some weird effect of Wall Street still hating gold?

I wonder how it'll resolve. These two are supposed to move hand in hand, no?

For the time being, I'll let silver's outperformance encourage me to expect a future surge in gold prices.

Invaders from the planet Newsulon


Lots of stuff and so on.

Ritholtz - bull rallies without a 20% correction. Ha! Is this the precis to a secular bull market in the US? Oh, I know what Jordan's going to say, so that's why I also include the next news bit:

Michael Shaoul - the NYSE margin debt argument is bullshit. He has a very good point: it doesn't matter the total amount of the debt, but rather the total cost of servicing, and the value of the asset being leveraged! By the total cost of servicing metric, we're only at 30% of the 2007 high; by the asset value metric, we're only at 70% of the 2007 high. So neener neener.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - 361 Capital weekly research briefing. All the analysis you've been paying for, but for free.

Slate - the Dutch are being punished. And they should! Here's proof that austerity doesn't work.

Michael Shaoul - UK unemployment claimant count. This is the reason I hold some CIE as a completion play in addition to US peripheral Europe ETFs: I would hate the idea of not participating in Euro core nation recoveries. Though I still think the periphery will outperform: Germany's made the clueless mistake of making Spain and Italy competitive with them.

FT Alphaville - what's going on with China's bad banks? Seems to suggest the government is using stealth bailouts of China's 4 bad banks. Is this in preparation for a future bad asset transfer?

Bloomberg - Adrian Day sees gold at $1600 by year end. Nice that he's getting profile at Bloomberg - maybe he can skip going to idiot goldbug conferences and start presenting to the more serious sort of people who can actually appreciate complicated economic/sociological models?

It's also funny that Josh Brown never heard of Adrian Day, and now here he is posting a link to this article. Feel free to say hi in the comments section, Josh! Mila Kunis comes here too, I'd introduce you two but she's mine and you better keep your hands off.

BI - hedge funds plowed into gold last week. I don't hate hedge funds; but I seem to feel better when they're not around.

Mineweb - India hikes the gold duty yet again. Dudes, the hike to 8% was silly enough; yet another hike to 10% is simply an indication to everyone that you've completely lost control of the rupee. It's to the point where you're just embarassing yourselves.

New Yorker - the abuse of civil forfeiture. So in the United States, the police have the uncontestable right to steal all your stuff. And you can do nothing about it. I'm sure the same thing exists here in Canada, or if not it will soon.

Lydian takes a move.


You can't see it on this teeny-tiny chart, but it looks like Lydian is flying up on high volume today.

I don't think this is a "gold's going up therefore buy Lydian" trade, since the story is that the government of Armenia has put new environmental roadblocks in place.

As far as I remember the previous news release said there is supposed to be some sort of government-Lydian meeting in the next few days. I doubt anyone would be buying unless there was a happy outcome expected.

So does this mean I should take out my 50% win in BCM and throw it all into Lydian? I only own a few shares of LYD right now, and it should at least go to $1.40 on any move.

not even the robots are trading BCM right now


This is what a barren book looks like.

$2.54 4 4 $2.55 4 1
$2.51 1 1 $2.69 3 1
$2.47 1 1 $2.79 6 1
$2.46 120 1 $2.80 6 1
$2.42 120 1 $2.82 10 1
$2.41 4 1 $2.86 1 1
$2.37 1 1 $2.88 10 1
$2.35 10 1 $2.99 6 1
$2.34 8 1 $3.00 20 1
$2.33 6 1 $3.16 20 1

You could still puke Bear Creek Mining down to $2 if you wanted.

Or you could drive it up to $3 even easier.

Only a couple people are buying, and absolutely nobody is selling right now.

I guess that's a good thing if you're looking for a stunning swing-trade stock.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

"Best rebound" award goes to Bear Creek Mining


It's nice when you put a lot of money into a stock and then it shoots up 45% in a week.

The only question now is where can I possibly put my winnings to make even more money?

The Interrupted Erectile Vigour ETF


Here's a chart of IEV:


Looks like a break-out, no?

Then what? Retest $41.50 or just keep flying forever? Target $55 on this move? I dunno. Not much volume behind it.

I'd point out that SPY's gone up about 35% since that March 2011 pivot in IEV, so there should be some catch-up possible for Europe, though I'm in no way suggesting that Europe will ever be a stronger economy than the US.

It doesn't look like the hedge fund money has been flowing like wine into IEV, so if you're expecting an Apple-style fund flow driven bubble in Europe, it's probably not happening yet. Then again, maybe they use some other ETFs for their Euro recovery play.

And I'd also note that Europe has been considered by Wall Street to be a doomed evil den of socialist money-printing, so there's a larger possible swing in investor sentiment than you'd expect with most other stuff. If, of course, anyone decides to go long Europe.

With SPY possibly backfilling til October, maybe this will be the only place for the money to go?

Then again, maybe that money's already decided where to go next, and it's going into FXI? Cos Wall Street prefers investing in totalitarian communism?

That's my opinion.

Some news again


Stuff.

BI - september angst. Apparently "everyone's talking about" how they expect the market to crash in September. So I guess it'll have to happen, then.

Reuters - Eurozone moves back to growth. Industrial output improving.

Bloomberg - Europe growing again means boost for global economy. Or at least people think so, which will have the same effect on the markets.

Michael Shaoul - the outlook for Eurozone yields. More tightening of spreads in the future, he says.

Michael Shaoul - ZEW poll and the DAX. I wasn't interested in the stories about a dumb sentiment poll, but Shaoul says it's a useful timing/signaling tool for trading the DAX index. I'll continue assuming he knows more than me on the topic.

Reuters - Abe's an idiot. He wants to reduce corporate taxes and shift more burden onto Japanese consumers with a higher VAT. I wouldn't be so bullish on Japan anymore, people.

Reuters - India's gold guzzling spurs neighbours to act. Stunning increases in their neighbours' gold imports indicate that gold smuggling is defeating Chidambaram's idiotic policy.

Sovereign Man - Christina Fernandez wants you to have an erection. Aside from this being a good headline, it's yet more proof Simon Black is not Jeff Berwick. Because Berwick would never post an article like this, because he'd be pointing out how stupid the libertopians (like Casey) are when they build their little libertopian (anti-)communes in countries like Argentina. Quite enough done?

Quick rumination on silver and gold


You've probably noticed. Silver and gold have sort of been moving out of sync to each other in the past couple days.

This has caught my attention, and for the time being I'm assuming silver and gold are still supposed to move in tandem, with silver moving faster; and also I'm assuming that gold will eventually have to correct upward to follow silver. Or, alternately, that silver will soon have to correct down hard to get back in line with gold.

For what it's worth, I think the silver price is following an improving industrial demand scenario, and gold is seeing more selling than it should because people still think it has anything to do with US interest rates, when it really has more correlation with industrial demand insofar as industrial demand correlates wth EM wealth generation.

But it's something that's governing whether I stick with my junior miner positions.

Two charts, two questions


So does this roll-over to a new low in the homebuilders indicate the broader US market is going to move back down for a couple months?

A $SOX rollover would be a below-469 print, so I guess we need to watch out for that next.



And is this the reason that people (i.e. some hedge fund with more money than brains) are suddenly buying the China 25 again? Do they think the 25 big state-owned Chinese businesses are going to start making money again somehow?

BTW, EPU (the Peru ETF) has also seen some significant +3SD buying. Not the sort of thing you'd do if you were scared copper was about to collapse.

Two questions, no answers, just trying to set the table.

Monday, August 12, 2013

Some more light reading


Here's a bit more news for you.

Calculated Risk - the key downside risk. His biggest fear is the Republican Taliban doing another suicide attack on Congress. And they're stupid enough to do it.

Bloomberg - Euro stocks cheaper than the last time they stank. Euro Stoxx 50's book value multiple is something like 60% that of the S&P 500.

BI - on shorting the yen. Shorting the yen for quick profit based on some guy promising something was an idiotic move to begin with; now how much of a snapback is left in the yen? Can it get back to 90 to the dollar, maybe? And what does that do to the rest of the markets when it happens?

Bespoke - steel stocks jump. OK, this is getting weird: the EM crises aren't driving a collapse in hard commodities. Is it because everyone thinks that a resurgent Europe, US and Japan will be enough to  increase commodity demand?

Reuters - government unveils new steps to prop up the rupee. I'm left shaking my head: not one of these steps mentions exporting more stuff. So, again, the Indian government demonstrates their utter incompetence.

Mining.com - astronomers identify 12 asteroids close enough for mining. Know what? I also made a discovery. I just identified 12 asteroids that are never going to be mined until engineers develop methods to crush, leach, melt, smelt, refine and pour metals in space where the last time I checked you have to deal with a vacuum, microgravity, zero temperature, destructive radiation, lack of reagents, and lack of fuel except for sunlight.

A new Grandich client - Lupaka Gold


Well, IKN loses another friend, as Lupaka signs up Peter Grandich to lend his professional commentary.

Let's see what he has to say!

I like to introduce a new Grandich Publications client, Lupuka Gold.

Whoopsie! Freudian slip there!

Since it’s IPO in June 2011, Lupaka Gold has grown its resource base four-fold. Experienced management, successful exploration and committed on-going community relations efforts in Peru have allowed the company to go from a very early stage explorer, to one with over 3.4 million gold equivalent ounces in its portfolio.

Hey Pete, apparently the metallurgy makes Crucero a difficult property to advance. Or at least that's another analyst's opinion.

Lupaka’s flagship Crucero project currently sits at 2.2 million ounces of gold. What’s even more exciting is that the overall project area holds several areas of interest with the potential to expand the resource base by orders of magnitude.[...]

Yeah, you saw those big purple splotches on their IP map too, eh? They certainly look very big and very purple. Have you asked them how much drilling those big purple splotches have been seeing in the past year?

Strength in management is something that cannot be undervalued. Lupaka’s upper management has experience taking junior companies through the exploration stage right through to takeover. Eric Edwards was most recently CFO at Andean Resources before it was taken over by Goldcorp in a $3.4 billion acquisition in 2010. Prior to joining Lupaka, Darryl Jones was CFO at Corriente Resources before they were acquired by CRCC-Tongguan Investment Co. for $680 million in 2010. Experience of this nature is invaluable in an industry where success is rare, and those that have succeeded before are more likely to succeed again.

Yeah. They're so strong that they bought Andean American for a major premium, thus diluting out their shareholders. I'll let someone else comment further about the management in the comments section, if he wants.

Several catalysts are on the horizon for Lupaka. The company anticipates receiving its category 2 permit for Crucero in August. This is the highest form of exploration permit obtainable in Peru and will keep the company permitted at Crucero through to the development stage.

Have you looked at how likely Crucero is to get developed?

Invicta, Lupaka Gold’s secondary asset is receiving attention from larger, cash flow generating company’s interested in potentially taking it into production. Invicta is a near-term production asset that Lupaka acquired through the merger with Andean American Resources in October 2012. A joint venture that would see Lupaka participate in a cash flow generating asset moving forward is an attractive proposition for the company, and shareholders.

Oh really? Other companies are interested in Invicta, you say? And you heard this from where? Management? And have you looked at the likelihood that Invicta could get taken into production given the problems with the community that owns the land where the leach pad was going to go? How about the topography and the grade of the several deposits that make up the total gold?

The sheer amount of potential gold mineralization in these anomalies is what gives Lupaka its serious upside potential. The possibility of creating a mining camp or district scenario is what Lupaka was formed to do, and the next stage of exploration should give the company a good idea of how large this potential is.

Certainly, upside, yes. And how likely is it that this upside will be available to you? Have they promised not to buy any more Andean Americans in all-equity deals?

Good luck and god bless, Pete.

And now, the news


Some stuff.

BI - Jim O'Neill on the Western recovery. He's smarter than all of us, so it's a good thing to read his opinions.

Bespoke - big flip to bearish. Doubt there's much US upside til maybe a Hallowe'en rally.

BI - SocGen thinks Eurozone recession is ending. Probably not, but at least everyone's talking about it. And judging by the US equity market post-2008, if you wait til Europe has recovered and looks safe to invest in, you'll be letting someone else make the first 50% on the advance.

FT Alphaville - the long road to EZ bank deleveraging. I guess if you're a cash-flow positive company then you don't care about bank lending though? So don't tell the Euro bulls that their banking system still sucks. Um, especially Deutschebank.

Reuters - balance of payments woes hamper rupee rescue. This sort of data hints at a possible catastrophe awaiting India unless they get their shit together. And attacking gold doesn't count as "getting your shit together".

Michael Shaoul - India July trade and CPI data suck and their car sales and industrial production suck too. Crisis coming!

FT Alphaville - the great Chinese collateral trade. Then again, GS has been (a) warning us about this for years to no effect and (b) making a fucking fortune hoarding commodities themselves. I assume they've already exited the threatened markets, in which case where is the imminent breakdown?

Reuters - GLD buying gold again?!?!? An increase in GLD holdings? Huh? Well, they were down below 1000 tons; was there anyone left to sell?

Mineweb - China's first-half gold consumption soars. Sorry to sound bearish, but I don't like the idea of a metal that has only one country supporting it now. Too much nondiversification risk. Hey, I'm still a buyer, but I've got an itchy trigger finger.

Gizmodo - YouTube easter egg lets you play missile command. Too bad my employer blocks YouTube.

See Rio voom. Voom, Rio, voom!


See Rio voom!


Voom, Rio, voom!

Like I said, breaking through that SMA(50) to a higher high set Rio up for a major pop. I iz teh super TA dood.

I guess their BoD isn't wanted by Interpol and/or Alex Black's not retiring and/or their cash costs aren't skyrocketing after all, eh?

As noted by rogue Peruvian bloggers, Rio's fall was more bullshit than other miners' falls, thus I guess it has the farthest to run to get back to proper valuation. Where's that, right now? $3.25? I dunno, but you'd have to think it's still higher than this. Once something goes +3SD up, it can cover a lot of territory quickly before exhausting itself.

And thus, yet again, yet another year, I will make a shit-ton of money on Rio Alto Mining. What a great stock.

I should just trade this, Bear Creek and DPM from now on.

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Here come the lunatic Christian fucktards, out to convert the UK to fundamentalism again


So, apparently a pony was found dead on Dartmoor.

And the fundamentalist Christians are coming out of the woodwork to give the UK one of their favourite pastimes - a moral panic:

Plymouth Herald - Satanists blamed for horse mutilation and death on Dartmoor.
A Satanic cult has been blamed for the death of a pony which was horrifically mutilated in a ring of fire during a full moon.
Police are investigating after the young male animal had its genitals and right ear sliced off and tongue and eyes cut out - possibly while it was still alive.
As anyone who follows animal mutilation stories can tell you, it's rather more likely that the animal dropped dead, and then later has its grundies and face eaten off post-mortem by scavengers.

If you're an animal, those are the easiest things to chew off from a dead body.

And I'm sorry, but trying to cut off a horse's anything while it's still alive will put you in the hospital or the morgue. Period. My granddad was permanently crippled by one kick from a horse, just cos the horse was having a bad day; imagine how bad even a pony would fuck you up if you were trying to snip his tongue off.

And "in a ring of fire during a full moon"? That's one of those factoids that you have to doubt immediately; after all, did someone really make a ring of fire, and do the police know for certain it died during the full moon? Grass doesn't burn, at least not in a nice well-arranged round-shaped fire. Try it sometime.

But there are all sorts of nutbar Christian fundamentalist wackjobs out there who think there is a secret world-spanning cult of pony-hating (formerly baby-raping) Satanists out there, and they've watched all sorts of movies or videos or shit where some guy makes an actual ring of fire during a full moon. So it's quite likely someone added these stupid facts to the story to make it sound more sinister.

Because they want you to come to church.
Animal welfare officers are investigating but local horse carers believe the butchery was part of an evil occult or Pagan ceremony by Devil worshippers.
Local welfare charities have reported the death to the police and have appealed for the public to be extra vigilant.
Karla McKechnie, Dartmoor's Livestock Protection Officer, said she feared devil worshippers were behind the ritualistic horse killing.
She said: "We do get strange things happening from time to time, normally when its a full moon.
"I've come across strange circles in the ground, boulders used as altars, that sort of thing, but thankfully animal mutilations are rare.
"I suspect its witches or devil worshippers but it's always hard to get to the bottom of it.
"Local horse carers" apparently means one single nutbar named Karla McKechnie. I really fucking hate when a supposed journalist pluralizes "concern" or "belief" of one person to make it seem like it's a mass phenomenon, but that's what happens when journalism school graduates are forsaken in favour of some dumb twit with O-levels who's willing to work for a pittance.

How do I know Karla McKechnie is a fundamentalist wackjob? As we saw back in the Satanic Ritual Abuse Panic days, fundies always tend to conflate "occult" with "Satanic". It's part of the American fundie tradition of calling everything Satanic: yoga, meditation, Hinduism, and hippies doing candle magic stuff from the Witches' Bible Compleat are all Satanic according to these guys. "Satanic" symbols include the peace sign, the pentagram, the Star of David, and probably even the logo on Led Zeppelin IV for all I fucking know.

Basic fact: there are occultists and pagans in England. They don't worship the devil, they don't worship Satan. Even Satanists don't worship Satan: ask one sometime and he'll be happy to explain Satanism to you.

Only stupid American-inspired fundamentalist christians believe that Satanists worship Satan, and that witchy and druidy hippies worship Satan, and that shit even the Catholics worship Satan.

And apparently Karla McKechnie isn't even an actual Veterinary Technician, or whatever it's called over there. Cos if she was, the paper would call her a Veterinary Technician instead of calling her several "horse carers".
Dartmoor and the surrounding countryside in Devon and Cornwall has been dogged by rumours of satanic rituals for years.
Oh good.

One of my favourite topics of study back when I cared about sociology was the Satanic Ritual Abuse panic that happened on the Isle of Lewis a few decades back. Interestingly, it was an isolated community (go find Lewis on a map for fuck's sake), and the "Satanists" were all southerners who had moved up to Lewis for... cheap rent or something, I dunno. So obviously the strange southerners got persecuted as "Satanists". It would have been a great Ph.D. thesis, if only I had thought visiting Lewis was a remotely good idea.

And here we are with another outlying area whose traditions are being trampled upon by an influx of Londoners.

Satanic ritual allegations always pop up in these situations, cos you've got a conservative rural population who feel their traditional way of life is under threat. "Because Satan" is the Christian fundie response.

The fundamentalist preachers from the US move into these areas, and give a few lectures on "how to spot Satanism": the source of the concern in Lewis was (if I remember) eventually traced to one social worker having gone to a "lecture" by fundie wackjobs from the USA who came to Scotland to sow some fear of Satan.

So I guess the fundies have been giving lectures in Cornwall now?
In 2012 a two-year-old horse called Eric belonging to Dawn Jewell, 27, was found mutilated on the day of satanic animal sacrifice.
Half a bee, philosophically, must ipso facto half not be.

(Sorry, needed to inject a comedic break here. If you don't get the Monty Python reference then you're Satanist scum!)
He was found dead in his field in Stithians, near Falmouth, Cornwall, after a full moon with his right eye gouged out, his teeth removed and his genitalia hacked off.
Lots of days of the year that are "after a full moon". More specific, please?

God only knows, maybe there's a feral dog on the moor (I guess there are no wolves in England anymore?) and it finds it easier to hunt during a full moon.

Or maybe the horse just dropped dead and its body was gnawed on by skunks or raccoons or whatever scavengers you lot have in England.

Or maybe some asshole goes around killing horses.
The horrific attack happened on St Winebald Day, a date in the satanic calendar traditionally celebrated with bloody rituals.
Oh holy fuck with honey garlic fuck sauce served with a side order of fuck fries and fuck coleslaw, accompanied by a nice full pint of Guinness in a glass with the word "fuck" written on it in big red letters! This requires Blown-Mind Keanu:



SAINT something-something Day? As in the day of a Christian SAINT?

This is "a date in the Satanic calendar traditionally celebrated with bloody rituals"?!?!?

Satanists worship Catholic saints on Saints' Days?


 Answer: No. No, they don't.

Sure, Walpurgisnacht (another day entirely) is important to a few Satanists somehow, but not because St. Walpurga was accidentally canonized on May Day, and Walpurgisnacht is the May Eve, and that happens to be important as an older pagan holiday being the mid-spring night, cos you can't plant anything before May in northern Europe where it's cold so it's good to keep track of the earliest possible planting day.

Walpurgisnacht is conveniently at the opposite end of the year from All Hallow's Eve, and that's why Satanists care about this completely different day which doesn't have to do with Saint Winebald.

Now... who is St. Winebald? He's some dude. Really, Wikipedia's got nothing. Quote: "abbot of the Benedictine double monastery of Heidenheim am Hahnenkamm, and beyond that we got nothing." The Feast of St. Winibald is Dec 18th. Apparently he lived in the same period as Walpurga and they might have even quaffed mead together. I doubt any Satanist, who "worships Satan", satanically, is going to be looking up Catholic feast days to determine when to perform his next Satanic ritual. Especially dedicating their Satanic ritual on Dartmoor which is Cornish to a dead German abbot.

Especially when you could do even more evil and mayhem by just holding off for 6 fucking days and doing your Satanic giggity on Christmas Eve.

Oh, and by the way, Plymouth Hystericald - Dec 18th is also the day of St. Mawnan of Cornwall. Why aren't you blaming him? I guess cos Winebald sounds more sinister, it being more German and all.

But there are lots of hippies and metalheads out there who think they're druids, and probably would be happy to sacrifice animals because that was the druidy way of doing things, and thus they'd be preserving their ancient Celtic heritage of killing stuff in honour of the Horned God or something. And maybe druids would find it a good idea to do a ritual on the Saint's day of a Cornish priest... cos... I dunno, I'm still drawing a blank.

But I guess blaming it on druidism would be too obvious a slander against the heritage of the Celtic lower classes out there. And if you piss off the lower classes they get mighty nasty. So instead you blame it on "Satanism" and invite the mouth-breathing Cornish to go to some stupid American-style fundie church service where they can be saved from the evil pseudo-papistry of Anglicanism, with their anti-Christ HM Queen Elizabeth II and their false prophet Archbishop of Canterbury - who parenthetically is a Geordie and thus about as far away from God as you can possibly get.

Now, this story was carried elsewhere too:

The Independent - Police investigate possibility that Satanic cult killed and mutilated pony on Dartmoor.

They seem to have copied the Plymouth Herald article verbatim. Except they probably have a Catholic typesetter who realizes the "St. Winebald Day" angle was a fucking stupid clownish drooling pile of steaming idiocy, so she cut that bit out to make the newspaper look slightly less fucking stupid.

Unfortunately, the Independent's article adds this:
Inspector Oliver told the BBC that his officers would be speaking to "experts in the field as it was not in the normal remit".
The fuck?!? "Experts in the field"? Of what?

I do certainly hope Insp. Oliver means he's going to consult with something like "experts in animal mutilations", and not "experts in Satanic cults". Because sorry dude, you're going to end up getting brainwashed by a bunch of fucktard American fundamentalist wackjobs.

Hey! Insp. Oliver! Want some "expert" stuff on Satanic killings?

Here. Watch this video. It's got a hot blushing Christian teenage chick in a bikini who's playing dead and who has stuff drawn on her body in pen.



And here's another one, where some fundie in a mullet, who hasn't had a real job his entire life, shows you a park where Satanists and homosexuals like to go hand in hand. No tits though.



Insp. Oliver, this is the level of "expert"-ness that you'll find: a bunch of fundies who just fucking make shit up. These guys ain't graduate students from a forensic anthropology programme; they're fundie wackjobs who've maybe read a couple Bob Larson books that hype "the evils of Satanism". Or just watched the videos, like this infomercial:



So you will not, for example, be able to get them to give you primary-source proof from a "Satanic spellbook" that proves that yes, indeed, a Satanist wanting to perform some particular ritual has to draw little pentacles on a chick's boobs just so, it says here on page 172 of Satanic Spells Made Easy for Morons by renowned Satanist author Stanley McSatanstein von Satan.

These "experts" don't do experiments, they don't do statistical analysis, and any lawyer with two brain cells to rub together will shred these fucking Jesus-freak assclowns into mincemeat on the stand if you're ever so fucking stupid as to present them to the court as "expert" witnesses. And then you'll be next up on the stand and that lawyer will make you the laughing stock of the justice system.

Because it's utter bullshit. It's all been made up by fundamentalist Christian wackjobs whose entire purpose is to convert your interestingly-dentitioned halitosis-blessed island fortress nation away from that evil Popery of the Anglican Church, over to fucking Southern Baptism or some such shit. Oh and take all your money.

Because Jesus.

Now here's another English rag covering the story:

Daily Telegraph - Pony mutilated in suspected satanic act in Dartmoor.

Forgive me btw, but I was under the impression that a thing should be said to be on Dartmoor, not in it. Because Dartmoor is a moor, and a moor is a thing that you are said to be on. Like a heath, say. Correct me if I'm wrong. (Of course you can be in Dartmoor if you've been "bunged up in the nick" as they say at HM Prison Dartmoor.)

Anyway, the Telegraph has yet more depth to the story, which makes me wonder if maybe they have a real journalist working for them:
According to experts, the south west has a long association with Satanic groups, some of which still perform sacrifices.
Really? "Experts" again? And these "experts" are in touch with enough "Satanic groups" to know that some of them have given up doing sacrifices?

No. It's not like that at all.

Rather, the "experts" is some dumb crazy chick again, and "know" means she's only making shit up again.
Jenny Thornton, an animal welfare officer on Dartmoor, thought the position of the foal was “sinister” when she was called to examine it later that night.
“Crows take eyes out but animals certainly couldn’t have cut an ear off,” she said. “We have not jumped to any conclusions but it certainly seems that it could have been ritualistic.”
Yes, animals can "cut" an ear off. If the animal was there for a while the ear is easy to gnaw off. Thank you, btw, for noting that the eyes are the first things to go when free food gets set out at night.

And I like your sense of humour, Jenny! "We haven't jumped to any conclusions yet, but LORD SAVE US THE DEMON SATAN AND HIS HORDES HAVE OVERWHELMED US"?

I hope she brings a fucking parachute when she actually does jump to conclusions.

And here's that nutcase fundie Karla McKechnie with her undeserved 1 sentence of fame again:
Karla McKenchie, who has looked after animals on Dartmoor for 13 years, said cult members were obvious suspects.
“When you think it was done under a full moon and the pony was in an arced-out circle that was possibly burnt by candles, I think you could be looking for someone other than just your local Joe Bloggs,” she said.
Ah! Cult members are obvious suspects, and she knows this because she hangs out with animals. There's your fucking "expert" right there.

And she's obviously the one who's added the "circle burned by candles" bullshit to the story.

And interestingly, it's not "just your local Joe Bloggs" - the subtext being that it's some outsider. Because the "OMG Satanists" story, as I noted above, is always ultimately a narrative driven by fear of outsiders.

But wait! There's more!
The police are taking these precedents seriously, and Insp Oliver said the lunar cycle was possibly a factor. “There is a lot of research about the effects of the cycle,” he said.
“As is well known, a full moon does affect people: I’ve been in the control room before where we’ve had two separate people on high buildings threatening to throw themselves off [during a full moon]. Monday was the full moon, so it would be a bit of a coincidence.”
OK, Insp. Oliver is now proven a fucktard. "There is a lot of research about the effects of the [full moon]"?!?! Really? What, you mean "research" as in "conversations with little old ladies in the pub, especially after they've 'ad a few"?

This is what happens when you let low-grade fucking morons become police officers.

And then this paper must have checked out Wikipedia to find some more "experts":
Per Faxneld, an expert in contemporary Satanism at the University of Stockholm, said that full moons were important in Satanist rituals, but that the attack was unlikely to have been carried out by an “established Satanist group”.
Per Faxneld?

He's a Ph.D. student who's into black metal. And he's from Sweden, where the paganist religions are qualitatively very different from England: Odinism is not even remotely like druidism. Now sure, he has actually contributed some to the study of actual real Satanist groups, but this is not the level of "expert" that you would consult in any other field.
He added that “one of the most extreme Satanist groups in the world”, the Order of Nine Angles – which has even called for human sacrifices – is based in Britain. 
Yeah, well... Anton Long aka David Myatt from the ONA became a muslim a while back, and now he's apparently some other sort of thing, so I doubt the ONA had anything to do with this. Especially since the Order of Nine Angles was like 2 guys in a cottage in Shropshire, which is a bit far of a drive to mutilate ponies. But you wouldn't expect that level of investigative journalism from the Daily Telegraph, I guess.

And we'll give the last words to Batshit Karla:
Karla McKenchie thinks such a cult will provide the answer. “I’ve never come across somebody who goes out in the middle of the night, catches ponies and mutilates them,” she said. “When you go start doing that to an animal, you obviously don’t bat for the right side.” 
Yeah... so therefore if you don't bat for the right side you must be a Satanist.

Instead of some bunch of hippies playing druid. Or even just some dumb Cornish teenagers who like getting drunk and killing animals.

Cos all the evil things that happen in the world are the result of Satan, instead of your own fucking stupidity.

This is why I'm always calling for punching someone in the fucking face as the answer to all life's problems.

Dustin Byfuglien jersey


So I was over at the Walmart buying some clothes, and saw a few neat t-shirts that would be quite fitting to wear at a goldbug conference.

But then there was a stand with some souvenir jerseys. It looked all like Leafs stuff, so I didn't have high hopes; most were either that kid defenseman who was on the ice for all 4 goals when they choked against Boston, or that bum they got from Boston who was picked last in the all-star game.

I looked through them anyway, hoping I could maybe find a Fraser McLaren or Colton Orr jersey. Not that I'd be interested in buying them, but that'd be about the best they could have.

And then, just out of dumb luck I guess, I found a nice big Dustin Byfuglien jersey. So I bought it.

Here's what's so great about Dustin Byfuglien:



He's something huge like 6'8" and 270 pounds or something, and knows how to throw his weight around. One fond memory of any Blackhawk fan was seeing him crush Chris Pronger into the boards - til Byfuglien came along, I doubt there was anyone in the NHL who could actually knock Pronger down. That one play showed the Hawks that Philadelphia were mere mortals with a weak defense, and that they had nothing to fear from Pronger. So Byfuglien, more than anyone else, won Chicago their Stanley Cup that year.

Here's a little feature on Byfuglien's childhood:



In summary, he's a good Canadian boy from Minnesota who's not afraid to go into the corners!

Actually, when you watch a lot of the replays, he's almost got a Mario Lemieux quality to him - he glides along the ice without even seeming to skate, then the puck magically appears on his stick and just goes right into the net without him even having to move. Almost as if he's some magical being who can automatically put pucks in the net just by meditating on the infinite oneness of being, or something. Like I said, like Mario Lemieux.

That's actually pretty good for a guy who's like 6'10" and 320 pounds or something.

I never really bothered with following Chicago til they had that good first playoff where they went 2 or 3 rounds - but I was really impressed with them then (they made me a good pile of money on the hockey pool), and was sure they'd become a Stanley Cup team soon enough just with the players they had. Sure enough, the next year they did.

So it really pissed me off when, right after winning the Stanley Cup, they traded Byfuglien to Atlanta. Frankly the Hawks were persona-non-grata to me from that point forward, despite all their other good players. Til recently I heard picked up my other favourite player, the transcendentally ugly and insane Danny Carbomb.

Um, who they've now traded to LA, for fuck's sake.

Anyway, back to the main topic, here's 7'3" 380-pound Dustin Byfuglien and his dog:



He's no Blue, but Dustin's a gentler, kinder type of guy, y'know?