Saturday, July 13, 2013

Some Saturday reading

Fuck I hate mowing the lawn.

With that out of the way, here's the news:

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - NASDAQ explodes, despite Apple. I guess technology is the thing to buy? Oh - also, NASDAQ is in a nice orderly channel targeting 3500.

Ritholtz - NASDAQ 100 A/D line at new highs. Quote:
To paraphrase Stephen Colbert, sometimes reality just has a bullish bias . . .

Blackstone - Asia is reaching a turning point. Some extended commentary from Byron Wien on China, but also the other Asian countries. Pessimistic on China and optimistic on Japan.

Michael Shaoul - China credit & monetary stats for June. Conclusion:
Overall this report is in line with our expectations, and keeps the risk of a credit crunch later in 2013 at a fairly high level. We remain concerned that market participants are paying much too little attention to this risk at the current time.
Probably because we know China's leadership isn't going to destroy the country.

NY Times Dealbook - China's growth woes could force government response. Bill Bishop article. Long important quote that gets at the heart of the matter:
This column has argued several times that Beijing does have a plan and is serious about economic reform. Economists inside the Chinese government, and certainly Premier Li, understand very clearly what the challenges are.
In August 2012, Li Zuojun, deputy director of the Institute of Resources and Environmental Policy Research at the Development Research Center of the State Council, published an article detailing nine major challenges the Chinese economy faces. His article received a fair amount of notice.
During the interbank crisis in June, Li Zuojun became an Internet sensation, not for that 2012 article but for a talk he gave in 2011 that predicted an economic crisis in July or August 2013. In that talk, Mr. Li said that China was in the midst of a bubble that would pop by 2015 or 2016.
Mr. Li argued that the new leadership that would be in place by 2013 would have the choice of either taking on the bubble and letting it run, in which case they would be responsible, or popping it soon after they took power in 2013, in which case they could blame the previous administration.
In addition, the new leaders could reset the benchmarks to a lower base and, assuming they could manage through the social challenges of an economic dislocation, would be able to show strong growth through the remainder of their term.

Michael Shaoul - India car sales and industrial production. Also, India trade and CPI data. Looks horrible, quote:
June's trade data did at least show a sharp reduction in gold imports, with new tariffs slashing imports to $2.45 bln in June from $8.39 bln in May. Although it is possible that some of this activity has simply been replaced by smuggling, with a greater incentive for malfeasance having been created by the tighter policy, we believe that there has been a substantial drop in gold imports, which no doubt helped feed into the metal's weakness in late June. - in the nuclear industry, everything is terrible. Great article pointing out the bullshit hype of the your anium scene. Quote:
"The nuclear industry is in decline: The 427 operating reactors are 17 lower than the peak in in 2002, while, the total installed capacity peaked in 2010 at 375 GWe before declining to the current level, which was last seen a decade ago.
The authors round up some tough statistics. As of July 2013, 66 reactors are under construction but four of those plants have been under construction for over 10 years and nine under construction for over 20 year.
"In the absence of major new-build programs, the unit-weighted average age of the world nuclear reactor fleet continues to increase and in mid-2013 stands at 28 years. Over 190 units (45 percent of total) have operated for 30 years of which 44 have run for 40 years or more.
"The average construction time of the 34 units that started up in the world between 2003 and July 2013 was 9.4 years.
"Cost estimates have increased in the past decade from $1,000 to $7,000 per kW installed."

Krugman - libertarian delusions of populism. Short translation: the Rethuglicunts want to maximize the white trailer trash vote, by convincing morons to vote for a party who will take away all their welfare. Because something something freedum. Sounds good.

Friday, July 12, 2013

Inane news article of the year

Splain this to me, y'all:

National Bank of Greece (ADR) (NYSE:NBG) opened lower today amid news that strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch led by Felipe Hirai reduced the year-end target for Brazil’s benchmark Bovespa stock index from a prior 65,000 to 50,000, citing a challenging outlook marked by slowing growth, high inflation and mounting political uncertainty.

These news blurbs really are just the products of a poorly written computer program, aren't they?

Friday videos - Spoons' "Nova Heart"

Again with the Canadian pop hits of the early 1980s being restored and saved forever on the internet.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

And now, the news

And now, the news:

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - OMG iz teh dubbl topz!. Josh Brown making fun of the "double top"/"triple top" crowd. And if you're one of them, and you don't like how you're being made fun of, then maybe you should stop saying things that make you look foolish.

Calculated Risk - On weekly initial unemployment claims. Nobody's reading too much into it, including him.

Bonddad - Conservative blogs unexpectedly ignore positive PMI data. Translation: Bonddad is surprised that Conservatives practice partisan disinformation tactics.

Reuters - $VIX is flawed, says some guy. The idea being that volatility is now securitized. He also tangentially makes the argument that Europe is grossly under-owned.

BIG - Crude inventories see record two-week decline. About 20 million barrels just up and disappeared in the past two weeks. It's probably a bunch of traders speculating long. I think they're too large for their market and will get their cocks handed to them.

Bonddad - Is Spain turning the corner? Ask Michael Shaoul. Personally, I'll laugh my ass off when Spain begins taking away all of Germany's export industry. You wanted them competitive, Adolf!

Floating Path - Japanese real estate on fire. Um, but not in the "flaming wake of Gojira" way. Or the "massive fireballs of Hiroshima and Nagasaki" kind of way. Or the "aftermath of a devastating earthquake" kind of way. Fuck, this blogger is such an insensitive cunt, eh? What next? "Arab nationals flying by the planeload into Manhattan real estate"? Or "Israeli stock market is a real gas"?

Sober Look - India's foreign reserves declining. He thinks India won't resort to selling their gold reserves. I think the Indian government is trying to do all it can to kill the price of gold. Up to you.

FT beyond brics - Indonesia hikes rates again as investors head for the exits. And this, ladies and gents, is what happens at the end of an EM secular bull: the money leaves, rates go up, currencies go down, countries are left pale shadows of their former selves for years.

Michael Shaoul - Indonesia. His take on it. You know he's Danny Downer on the EMs.

IKN - An interesting move in gold. It was just the beard, dude. Fade the beard. The only thing interesting was that gold went up this time.

Mineweb - Bob Quartermain on the juniors. I'd like him more if he had named his company "King Solomon's Mines".

Dear Stockhouse

Dear Stockhouse:

Your new website design looks very nice. Probably cost you a lot.

But I'm not going to bother looking for my old password so I can post on your shitty site again, because you're being a bunch of cunts for serving pop-under ads.

The only people who frequent sites that serve pop-under ads are morons. I hope you are happy that you've retained only the idiotic end of your clientele, and that the more discerning of your readers will be gravitating to Yahoo Groups or some other such shit.


Knock knock who's there fuck you

Why I'm not impressed with the miners just yet

Oh look:

Oh wow gold spiked last night etc.

Guess what?

In the grand scheme of things, all gold did was get back to the Bollinger mean.

And now GDXJ, despite being up like a gazillion percent from yesterday, is still only back at its own mean.

All this happened on the back of a Bernanke Beard Intervention.

Past BBIs faded in like 24-48 hours.

Oh, and all this is happening as the Indian gold dealers have agreed to voluntarily stop selling bars and coins for six months.

So while I'm sure it feels nice for the goldbugs to get the boot taken off their throats, and a marginally higher high is a refreshing change from the action of the past 3 years, this is not the beginning of an uptrend til my handy-dandy charts indicate the beginning of an uptrend.

You goldbugs can go ahead and take your chances at making the first 20% in the next 500% junior miner bull market. I'll come back when the coast is clear.

It sometimes takes reading a dummy to figure out you're wrong too

FT beyond brics - The China slowdown effect.

I was reading this just now and realized they had something wrong - but I also do, to some extent.

Here's a quote:

First, a slowdown – in a rebalancing of China’s economy from investment to consumption – should hurt commodity-producing emerging markets more than China’s Asian neighbours. That means Latin America, the Middle East and parts of Africa would be worst affected.

And within that group, metals producers are likely to suffer most:

since China’s investment boom has been the key driver of stronger demand for copper, iron ore and steel over the past decade. But this is now cooling and is likely to weaken further. By contrast, Chinese demand for energy and, in particular, agricultural commodities should hold up reasonably well.


What China's rulers are trying to do right now is strangle unproductive GDP - the loans going out to service loans, the unproductive industries causing the productivity overhang, the Ponzi investments, the over-indebted local governments that diverted large amounts of stimulus capital into the hands of their kleptocratic cronies and now have nothing in the kitty to pay the stimulus loans back with.

They want to maintain total GDP, but ensure that new capital is assigned productively and not bullshit. They've said this, it was carried on Reuters for fuck's sake.

And everyone knows they're going to be rolling out a major new program in October. Or at least they do if they read Bill Bishop: and if you don't read him you should stay away from talking about China and raw materials altogether.

I think this China situation should improve (or at least bottom out) the outlook for metals:

1. among the unproductive (and environmentally damaging, which they also have concerns about) industries targeted should be Chinese mines and smelters;
2. by definition, the misallocated capital that they're about to kill is not going toward capital production, so resouce demand shouldn't drop;
3. what, Chinese people are going to stop wanting to own cars and apartments, and drive on roads and ride trains? You think the CPC's new policy will be for the peasants to go back to eating a bowl of rice in a shack, cooking with dung and pooping in a bucket?
4. didja know that the consumer sector also contributes to base metals demand?

Also, I guess part of my skepticism got set off when this analyst bozo from Capital Economics said the LatAm mining countries look vulnerable. Why did this make me skeptical?

Cos they've been going down for a year already dumbass. Your stupid prediction is a year late. Way to wait it out for confirmation.

This did a great job of correcting some stupid fears I had inculcated in me by the idiot analysts of the world.

Metals suck cos of oversupply driven by the speculative commodity inflation spike of 2008-2010. They have nothing to fear from a China slowdown.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

1:57 - let's try something

OK, at 1:57PM I bought 5000 imaginary shares of HSD at $4.43. An imaginary limit sell order of $4.50 means I make $330 ex just for knowing Fed minutes are coming out.

Let's see how this thought experiment works.

UPDATE: huh. Fancy that. The S&P spiked up at 2PM. Jesus, 7 points in just seconds. Just goes to show you, eh?

Yet more news

And as a reminder, the market will immediately crash upon release of the Fed minutes this afternoon. Because why not fuck you.

And now, the news:

Bespoke - Get ready for another Fed minutes freakout.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - 361 weekly briefing.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - Why the long bias? Quote:

Fun fact - pick any day of any month of any year over the last 50 years - if you bought the stock market on that date, you had a 75% of being up one year later. That's the math of being in the game and being long-biased at all times.

This is why nowadays you shouldn't listen to any clown with a doomer perspective on the S&P unless they have a convincing case that the big crash is imminent. Especially if they've already proven they have no clue how economics works, they're parroting Republican disinformation, and they're getting all their charts from ZeroHedge.

FT Alphaville - How much China's trade data sucks..

FT Beyond brics - China: who's buying?. Analysis of trade data broken out into regions.

Michael Shaoul - More analysis of the sucking sound emanating from China. He notes the data allows you to figure out how much of Chinese GDP growth isn't emanating from the explosion of credit.

FT Alphaville - Cash-for-copper financing in China. Posted for IKN cos he's all about the copper right now. #1, did the big boys see this coming, and that's why they've stockpiled the copper and kept it off-market? #2, if the big copper crash comes, how much will that suck for these clowns in China?

Vancouver Venture - agrees with Brent Cook. Seems the Cookie Monster's feeling the same stress that a lot of the goldbug scene are feeling, and has now started speaking his mind. The New Cookie is becoming quite popular among the rogue blogger crowd, and I guess it might get him more spots on BNN. Anyway, he says

You mean where are we going to find the next batch of fools? I don't know. I ran into this fellow recently. I was in a meeting with this fund and I went through how the business works - junior exploration. And the guy from Brazil said, “I'm not getting something here. You mean you give these guys money. They go spend it all. They don't find anything and then you give them more money? How does this work?” It's not a concept everybody gets.

And we're all laughing about how silly this sounds now that we've all sold off the last of our chickenshit explorecos.


Some early morning reads

Bernanke's beard nears a microphone at 4:10 today, apparently. So expect people to sell off for no reason.

Let's try to clear the platter of leftovers from last night's news, shall we?

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - the breakout in breadth. Cumulative A/D line is broken out relative to the S&P 500. Of course the R2K has already broken out.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - Wall Street earnings revisions. But yet he's worrying about earnings not being up to snuff.

Bespoke - Percent of stocks above 50-day. It's moving back up, but is still low.

Reuters - on the funny gold borrowing rates. The explanation, from Jeff Christian, is that it's "largely a result of illiquid trade orders in the inactive delivery month of the Comex July contracts, as most participants are currently trading the August futures". So there you go, ZeroHedge - no impending apocalypse, no rocket launch.

Mineweb - Brent Cook on how gold miners will continue to suck for a very, very, very long time. He was the guy who nailed the oversupply of paper like 2 or 3 years ago, so I'm happy to accept the possibility that he's nailed it here too. So read it, and then ask yourself how those FNV 2017 warrants look now.

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Fun picture

A modest proposal: a goldbug parody blog

We're all complainers and none of us really do anything about our complaints.

So here's a modest proposal:

Let's start up a goldbug parody blog!

The basic rule is, you have to really be trying to pump gold, silver, gold stocks, explorecos, juniors, and (if you really want to get into that) the Tea Party, Libertarianism, Objectivism, Jeff Berwick and (hell why not) Alex Jones and Max "no, the other one: the crazy one" Keiser.

We'll try to become the single most popular goldbug blog on the internet - right up there with Turd Ferguson, King World News, ZeroHedge, JSMineset, and whoever else out there is popular these days.

The idea of all this is to test to see if goldbuggery obeys Poe's Law. I am pretty sure that it does.

I just checked, and it turns out I can even set the blog up so that we are all posting anonymously.

If you're interested in contributing, say so in the comments section of this post.

Oh my... check out that gold lease rate again

Oh my.

To shreds you say!

I still don't think I have any clue what gold lease rates mean; but if the cost to borrow gold short-term has spiked up, I assume (from previous action in this chart) that it could mean someone's borrowed a big pile of gold to dump it into the market.

WHARRGARRBL had an article last night, though, that said there was a major problem cropping up in the1M & 3M GOFO.

And Turd Ferguson said last night:
Look, I know these past nine months have been brutal and we've all suffered through the almost-daily pain of continued losses. But this is almost over! Yes, prices may continue lower, stopping and turning who knows where. However, I am 100% confident in my analysis of The Big Picture here. The major, too-big-to-fail, Fed-Primary-Dealer and Bullion Banks have now fully gotten themselves out from under what had been an extraordinarily wrong-footed net short position of over 146,000 contracts last autumn. They are now net long nearly 45,000 contracts! (And certainly more than that after last Wednesday and Friday.) That flip of 191,000 contracts took place while price declined by 30% from $1800 to $1250 and represents a change of position equaling over 595 metric tonnes.

Please, I beg you, remain patient and continue to stack physical metal. You will soon be rewarded with a rally that will surprise even the most ardent of bulls.
Which... yeah, that's something I'm going to use to fade this whole gold excitement thing.

Cos this here is my one and only criterion for paying too much attention to any of this crap:

And gold is still below its EMA(16) and its SMA(50), which is where it's been for fuck I dunno a zillion years or something now.

Basically, "show me the money!"

Aww this is awesome - introducing FOXREPLACE

For a long time, I've wanted to have some way of reminding myself of who's a fucking clown not worth paying attention to whenever I surf webpages. It pisses me off, even to the point that my blood pressure rises whenever I see that click-whore Weisenthal giving even an iota of attention to some dickweed like Faber.

Well, as it turns out, there's a Firefox plugin called FOXREPLACE that hardcodes my opinions into my daily browsing experience!

It took a minute to figure out how to use it. But basically, you do this:

0. Pull up Foxreplace on the Tools menu
1. Define a text string that you want to replace
2. Define the replacement text string
3. Hit "enable" and a few other things and stuff.

So, for example, you can do this:

click to behugeitize

And it'll take any webpage with the text string [David Rosenberg], like this one at BI, and change it to:

click to enfattenate

The underlining is mine (not in the original article) - just so you can see the power of this add-on.

Now I will forever be reminded of who that clown Rosenberg is. Of course it's not perfect how I set it up; I should really be doing a search-replace for just [Rosenberg]. But then in future I might be reading something else about some other guy named Rosenberg, maybe from a really good band, and this substitution would come up. I'm wondering how to proceed.

I guess I could make the replace strings all-caps, just so I never forget that this is a reminder to myself.

Do you see the power of this?

I mean, just imagine if I simply changed all instances of "ZeroHedge" to "WHARRRRGARRRBL".

Despite his recent 180-degree turn, David Rosenberg is still a fucking clown

BI - ROSENBERG: The Third Act Of The Economic Recovery Is Now In Full Swing!

Hey Rosie, you fucking clown.

This means that by spending the last five fucking years peddling your apocalyptic bullshit to the doomgoons at ZeroHedge, you missed the first two acts of the economic recovery.

That's a 100% upmove in the S&P 500.

Tell me now why anyone should ever pay attention to this fucking loser.

Emerging markets checkup

Two charts here, with my magical EMA(16) in red:

Sorta looks like the EMs are going to turn down again, if they don't turn up.

No serious, that's useful TA to me.

As far as the S&P stocks, it seems they're all trading on expected earnings right now - so, for example, MU is collapsing while AMAT is strong. So I think I'll go off and do something else today.

Monday, July 8, 2013

Two Kaisers

So yeah, as mentioned in the comments, John Kaiser put up a blog post a few weeks ago, and though I received it in email I hadn't bothered to post a link. Here it is:

Big picture perspectives needed to assess the wisdom of resource sector bottom-fishing

And you'll probably notice some familiar ideas worked into his narrative. Ahem.

And here's a link to John Kaiser being interviewed by Gold Report.

Ok, the rest of the news then

The rest of the news from this morning and the weekend.

Krugman - regions of Derpistan. Just when you thought Krugman couldn't get any more fun.

BI - Treasuries - the new pain trade. Now look at the "equity fund flows" vs "bond fund flows" chart in that article (sorry, I can't upload it here, Blogger is still borkend). Now ask yourself what happens to the US equity market when those flows reverse. Seriously. Where else will the money go?

BI - investors are acting rationally. Finally.

Michael Shaoul - Japan loan and deposit data for June. I find it mildly distressing that Shaoul seems to suggest all will be well with Japan as long as the government doesn't screw shit up. Anyway, one happier takeaway is this:

"[...]it should be noted that loan activity itself is far lower than it was 15 years ago, suggesting that there is little need for the private sector to deleverage, which means in turn that the lag between the build up of deposits and a pick up in lending may be somewhat shorter than was experienced in the US."

Bloomberg - China pledges to maintain credit after cash crunch and PBOC to extend cash crunch. OK, is it obvious now? They're purposefully looking to kill off those sectors and industries that are contributing to the debt bubble.

FT Alphaville - Likonomics is a stupid name. Yes, yes it is. So stop using it. Noted here is that the rest of Li's reforms are coming at the 3rd plenum of the 18th Party Congress, in October this year. I expect all will be clear then. In the meantime, China's Econo-eugenics (the culling of the unfit) will continue.

(You can see I'm trying to figure out who this famous person is who's reading my blog. E.g. today I provide a buzzword for him/her to use.)

Bloomberg - Underestimating risk by omitting time as a factor. If you don't include the time cost of money in your calculations when picking a stock to buy, you are a fool. And if you don't know what the time cost of money is, you shouldn't even be handling your own money.

This is why I don't buy gold - or miners - or miner warrants, which will be a great place to go in future - now in anticipation of $2000 gold two, three, or ten years from now. My time cost of money is the S&P 500's expected yearly return; why should I buy something and hold it, possibly for years at a loss, when I can put my entire portflio in the green by buying SPY and just walking away?

I'll sell those positions and buy back into the gold scene when it starts going back up. Til then, it essentially costs me money by holding a scene with no clear bottom in sight when I can buy something that has good reason to keep going up for the immediate future.

Every position costs money to hold. The gold miners illustrate this to an extreme degree - as an example, that RIO you bought at $2.80 has cost you a tremendous amount, both since you could have held out to buy at $1.80, and since you don't know when it'll go back up towards your target price. All that time, you could have owned a no-brainer that's been going up.

I know that's a "much different perspective which is only focused on the present". And if "great profits are made..." by "...following major trends, capitalizing on weakness and riding them to their zenith", then why don't you own SPY right now?

I mean, it's definitely on a major trend, and it hasn't yet reached its zenith. Wouldn't you agree?

(Note: Otto goaded me into this. I know you were really going after Josh Brown and Ritholtz.)

More news, and another Karl Denninger moment from moi

Yet more later. Writing in html sourcecode is tiring.

Calculated Risk - lumber prices off 25% from recent peak. Take a drive thru northern Canada and you'll see there's an infinite supply of softwood that can come onstream anytime; lumber prices are not informative of anything. However, lumber demand from China is sort of informative.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - is Europe about to go American? Watch me fade Josh here. Hey Josh? Is that what you guys all believe? That Europe is about to use stimulus to rescue their economies? Yeah? Well, what happens to the European markets when Merkel wins in a fucking landslide in September? Something good? Really? I think something bad will happen. And Merkel will win in a landslide. She has no opposition and the Germans love her.

Krugman - the political economy of permanent stagnation. Hey Kruggie, the reason the "political elite feel no need to change their ways" is because stagnation's not hurting them. This situation only ends when a few corpses of politicans are found in abandoned cars a la Red Army Faction. The best (i.e. most productive of justice) motivation for a politician is fear that the masses are about to slaughter them and eat their children.

Now how's that for being left of Krugman? Huh? Don't fucking call him a "leftist"; Krugman's a moderate centrist.

HuffPo - the collapse of science, not housing, ended the American dream. Agreed; however, this author needs to realize that a lot of the damage has been caused by asshat professors like himself. You're the guys who destroyed academic science by insisting you're so fucking important that you can't teach undergrad; so the schools all hired a fuckton of MAs and PhDs to work as sessional instructors, which destroyed both science education and the job market (since sessionals get paid a small fraction of minimum wage).

Mineweb - China's gold imports still at unprecedented highs. Some good philosophizing by Lawrence Williams. As an aside, I find it encouraging that the goldbug crowd is finally beginning to realize that India and China are what drive the gold price. I.e., the thing I was saying a year ago while you clowns were still going "wharrgarbl hyperinflation wharrgarbl Bernanke".

I eagerly await my invitation to give a talk at Cambridge House in September. Go ahead Tommy: you can have me, or yet another neocon pump & dump goldbug clown. Which would be a better talk?

IKN - let's start an ABX butout rumour. I know there are money management types (and their parasitic fungi, the junior gold press) reading my blog. So here you go guys, the nattering fishwife rumour of the day! Goldcorp buys out Barrick!

Some news, part one

More news later. Here's some starters for you.

Reuters - China cutting off credit to force consolidation. As noted, you strangle the credit to find out which manufacturers are using debt as a lifeline to stay in business. Overall, killing off overcapacity and killing off the weak high-cost producers is a great way to fix an economy.

Project Syndicate - the politics of China slowdown. Bill Bishop had his own take on this topic, but one interesting point I found in the article was the suggestion that Li & Xi are politically required to get the economic adjustment complete and bearing fruit by 2017. That's interesting from a long-term timing standpoint.

WSJ China Realtime - China's local debt mystery. The only interesting bit is that it's news.

FT Alphaville - China slowdown, metals edition. Really? $1000/t zinc? Really? Though at the same time, if this metals price silliness ever came to pass, don't you think the USA and other DMs would benefit tremendously from collapsed commodity prices? Like, say, the US bull market from 1994-1998?

BI - Jim Rogers says gold sucks. Mamta Badkar manages to hold a very lucid and informative interview with Rogers, who's become a bit of a clown in his old age but is still the god of commodity trading. Also,

BI - Jim Rogers says gold miners also suck. He starts off with Rod Stewart's "optionality of gold" and takes it from there. As far as cost of production goes, the guy who is still the god of commodities says:

"I've been in the investment world a long time and I know that things can stay below the cost of production for years. It takes a long time for people to believe they have to close their mines. It costs money to close a mine, it costs money to re-open a mine so people are reluctant to close mines. So you can see any commodity staying below the cost of production for a while, especially if it's something like a mine which is expensive to close and expensive to open."

And related to that,

Vancouver Venture - gold miners will continue to suck. Read it in its entirety; but one interesting point he makes re supply & demand is that GLD, when seeing net outflows, is a no-cost gold producer. He also notes SAND, FNV, RGLD and so on are also low-cost producers; I'd think it's more complicated than that but will have to save that pondering for a later time.

A few weird and useless thoughts

My brain works in strange ways, partially because when I was in university I programmed my subconscious to write my essays for me. Also, drugs.

Anyway, reading this weekend's IKN this morning, two thoughts came to me:

1. We Canadians are lucky in that if we want to play an aggressive short copper position, we can buy HKD.TO - a TSX-listed double-short copper ETF that (like the other Horizons ETFs) doesn't seem to lose a stack of money over time. Unfortunately its volume is usually thin.

2. Somebody. Please. Start up a junior exploreco named "Goldirocks Mines". It would be funny.

Anyway, blogger seems to be borkend - I have to write this post in the html window (thankfully I'm fluent in html 1.0) cos the "compose" window seems not to work. So you might not get a news post today. We'll see. Lots of great news available for you, but posting it would be a bitch.

Oh - comet52 and coasta, you two play nice now. No fighting in the comment section.