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Saturday, April 6, 2013

Jim Puplava interviews John Kaiser


Jim Puplava spends an hour giving you all of your John Kaiser needs.

Link

Weekend items of importance


Some Saturday morning news for you before I go back to the painful hard labour of capital gains calculations.

Bespoke - 10-year Treasury yield breaks uptrend.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - why your mom can't invest for shit. He looks at the attached chart and says he feels the US market is only at the media attention phase right now. He says: "To be clear, I don't see the renewed interest in stocks from the Mom & Pop investor class as a negative or a sign of a massive top - it's when they start quitting their jobs to daytrade or offering me tips at dinner parties that I get more circumspect about the meeting of Main Street and Wall Street."

Bespoke - Transports stage monster comeback. One of the warning signs of a top is now changing its mind? Or is it just a headfake before the next drop?

The Atlantic - can Japan undoom itself? And see also

Telegraph - historical Japanese monetary blitz. Morgan Stanley says "This is a gigantic fixed-income machine. They don’t buy equities and real estate. They buy bonds, and we think they’ll look at peripheral eurozone markets like Italy and Spain."

And by the way, German Bund yields dropped this week; but the Euro periphery ended the week even tighter to Germany. Technically, if a consequence of Abenomics is lower yields, then now is the time for the stupid Eurozone to pursue stimulus!

Cos you see, Japan really is important.

der Spargel - German tax cheats under the microscope. Germans already have over $500 billion hidden abroad. And yet they accuse the periphery of corruption? Oh, and

der Spargel - Deutsche Bank criticized for offshore operations. I'm sure if they ever find proof of Deutsche Bank's complicity in massive tax avoidance, Merkel will punish DB with a luxurious blowjob. Because the EZ is all about free shit for DB.

Biiwii - gold and silver CoTs "now firmly bullish". Guess I should load up on Sandstorm warrants, eh?

Mineweb - Commerzbank says gold to remain in demand. Contrary to other reports,

India appears to be seeing high gold demand levels, noting a statement from the former chairman of the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation that Indian gold imports in the March quarter were running at around, or higher than last year’s 228 tonnes and anticipates imports increasing some 30% year on year in the current quarter as wedding season demand kicks in.  India’s seemingly insatiable demand for gold appears to be continuing despite government efforts to try and make it less attractive to help solve the country’s balance of payments deficit.  Demand appears to have been further enhanced by the drop in the gold price which is trading some 13% lower than its recent high in November last year.

So who to believe? Unfortunately this analyst also quotes fucking Ayn Rand from fucking Atlas Shrugged. So all we learn from the article is that Commerzbank has very low hiring standards.


Friday, April 5, 2013

A funny xkcd


The mouseover text in the original is good too.

Friday night news

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - goes all artfaggy, drawing a parallel between the traditional April market swoon and a Blue Öyster Cult song. Oh and by the way, ha ha yes more cowbell shut the fuck up.

beyond brics - selling China to buy Japan? I dunno, is that what they're doing? Hey Josh Noble, how about if you construct a thesis and a title that don't use a fucking question mark, and tell me whether they're selling China to buy Japan, hm?

beyond brics - India liberalizing sugar. Though they're still subsidizing sugar for the poor, because supposedly poor people need sugar.

Bonddad - India not looking promising. Of course they've sucked for a while... and gold has too, funny coincidence there.

FT Alphaville - peak "end of an era". Izzy Kamizzy notes that there's a bit of a bubble in calling the end of an era for things. I'm sorry, but as far as copper is concerned, here's a graph:


and you can supply your own Orly Taitz jpg to question the concept of copper going back down to under $1 per pound. Cos that would indicate the end of an era. $3.00 copper? Not so much.

beyond brics - IEA projections for future energy consumption. They and BP still believe that the BRICs will continue growing and consuming more resources.

beyond brics - meet the newest giant rare earth miner. Someone tell all the rare earth pumpers to quit pulling the entirety of their "research" from the Casey newsletters, please?

Two more shitty stocks from the 2012 hall of shame

Canaco? Remember them? Who was the clown that recommended this heap of shit?


It sold for $1.43 once. Won't do that again though, it promised to suck from now on.

And why in the name of Jah Thee Funkadelick did I ever buy Sans Gold?


Seriously, I did, once, at $1.77 even. And it was probably a steal at that price.

No, I'm not a bagholder in either of these - they were quick in-outs traded a little over a year ago.

What I want to know is who the fuck was the clown that reccied these two stocks to me? Did he copy these names off a free Casey newsletter, or did he find them by surfing the Stockhouse boards looking for where the most illiterate Tea Partiers were hanging out?

SHUT THE HELL UP ABOUT THE JOBS REPORT NOT BEING BAD DAMMIT


Great, now they go and fuck everything up.

BI - Actually, this was a great jobs report. They say that it shows aging demographics are retiring and the professional sub-indices looked strong.

New Deal Democrat - The best awful employment report I've ever seen. Agg hours up, temp jobs up, U6 down, positive revisions for January and February.

So fuck. Great. Now the market's going to see this and sell off gold again.

A couple more great sells from last year



Hey, remember when Apoquindo was a steal at 47 cents? Now you can buy it for pocket lint. What does that say about the market?




Hey, remember when Sabina was a steal at $4? I guess that Glencore silver stream isn't worth anything after all, eh? Either that or all that gold in the ground isn't worth anything either.

Let's check in on some of last year's stocks


One of the great things about doing your capital gains forms is you get reminded of all the stocks you bought in previous years.

So let's spend the next few days checking in on some things I temporarily owned last year.

Hey, remember Estrella Gold?


Yowch. Well, at least I didn't hold on to Estrella!

Hey, how about Sunward?


Yowch. And it was a buy at $2.23 once. Thank god I sold Sunward.

Lesson being, it's never a bad thing to sell a stock that's going down.

US and world macro

And so what does this stupid jobs report mean?


Treasuries really are continuing to surge.



Junk might be rolling over.



SPY is as close to its SMA as it was in Feb, so there might be a little rollover coming.



USD might roll over too, that'd be nice.



EMs really are starting to emit a bad smell.


Now what happens when you put it in the context of next Tuesday's reaction to a poor start to earnings season from Alcoa, whose earnings I guarantee will suck gigantic donkey dick?

Does it mean everyone will go risk-off and pile into Treasuries in April? Will USD weaken?

Will I get another chance to buy Sandstorm warrants for cheap, and should I take a short EM position now or wait til the next time it gets back to its short-term EMA?

Oh, and in case your parade needs a little piddling upon


Oh wow! Look at the miners take off!




They're back under -2SD and away from RSI<30!

I'm really not fucking impressed.

A quick comment on stats


Normally I get surges in stats only when someone (IKN usually) links to me. Or when I do my stupid PDAC newsletter writer reviews.

This week started out with fairly low readership... then in the past two days it surged. Yes, there were some from IKN coming here to read my little dig at Otto for catching the Bear Creek knife. But the surge was much greater than that. I guess it's gotten to the point now where some damn fools think they need to read my blog before buying or selling shitty junior miners.

Look.

Long-term, I think gold has to go up. Supply-wise we're running out of it, and demand-wise as more people in the world become wealthy they'll buy more gold. Gold is pro-cyclical and an EM growth story and if you don't believe that after all the data I've brought up then it's best for you to simply stop reading my blog.

Mid-term, gold might be flattish for a few years as a lot of new mines come onstream, or it might go up as the EMs recover, or it might go down if EMs are stagnating upon hitting the middle income wall. It will crash if there's another liquidity crisis or it will skyrocket if the world loses faith in the banking system.

Short-term, the paper market will sell gold when the price goes down and will buy it when it goes up. Arrogant white people still think gold has something to do with the US economy.

Meanwhile the miners are still running into cost problems, and the tiny handful of competent miners out there have probably already been priced quite fairly by the market, so I really don't think there's a lot of reason to buy BTO or RIO. If someone like AUN is hated by the market and is going to grow (instead of continuing sucking), I'd buy. I'd honestly avoid BCM, since I don't want to be near any company that is at the whim of the ongoing capital raising crisis.

But generally I'd rather buy someone like Sandstorm, cos their costs are fixed, and long-term they'll still be making a fat wad of cash unless gold & silver collapse, which long-term I can't see happening.

But I really don't know anything and am just trying to figure shit out day by day. So read my blog for entertainment, and for the odd charts I put up, but don't think it's another Turd Ferguson Metals Report where you have to check in to get your orders.

BTW, after the spring swoon in the S&P 500 you might just as well  toss your money in there. I'd want to own the junior miners when gold starts flying up and the GDX starts going up strongly. Not when they're bouncing around the bottom of their charts doing nothing.

Morning news


Apparently the US had a bad jobs report, and gold's now popped back over $1565. I'm not impressed, since news-driven pops are only good for a day or two; then again, maybe this makes the fairweather friends in GLD stop selling their positions?

Anyway, here's the news:


Bespoke - earnings season cometh. It's always the spring earnings that kicks off a bad season in the S&P. And when Alcoa reports Monday after close, will that tank the materials?

The Atlantic - David Stockman and the cult of gloom. Again, it's always the conservatives who think the future is dark and gloomy.

BI - Goldman Sachs feels the global economy is slowing down. Well now they tell us?

BI - George Soros on the BoJ. He thinks they're doing something dangerous. That should mean he's buying gold, no?

FT beyond brics - Mexican labour is cheaper than China. If Mexico can start stealing work from China, does that mean China's done growing? Or will the Chinese leadership accept it as a signal that they need to get to work on improving per-capita productivity by addressing the structural features that are limiting growth?

BI - Jim O'Neill thinks the WMP crackdown will slow Chinese growth. Speaking of which, here's a link to Jim O'Neill's missives, which I think I'll subscribe to because he is probably a more competent analyst than anyone else I've been reading.

FT beyond brics - Chile has lots of copper with nowhere to go. Why is the copper price going down, then, with all of Chile's copper still locked up at port? Does that have anything to do with anything?

Grope & Flail - SEC probes Silvercorp. Also the RCMP and (snicker) the BCSC. Hey, how about you fuckheads start by investigating how Kun Huang has been imprisoned by the police without charge at the behest of Silvercrap's CEO? Because those of us in the world who aren't psychopaths or sheep think that looks awfully evil, and you guys in the RCMP and BCSC are evil in your complicity.

Friday videos - still even yet more Still Corners

Yet more Still Corners.



Fuck I sure do hope their second album doesn't suck. Out May 2013.



Thursday, April 4, 2013

Article about gold seasonality


Here's a link to a Mining.com article on gold seasonality.

Here's a chart:



Let's clear out the cache with some evening news


A few more things to think about tonight.

New Deal Democrat - initial claims missed seasonality? He wonders if there might be an unaccounted-for seasonality that always makes March and April claims higher. He's no fool, so I'm willing to listen to his theory.

Bonddad - China looking good? Despite the sickness in the chart, he thinks China is consolidating before moving higher. That would be very nice of them, I think.

BI - China ruling on WMPs might have been what crushed commodities. I doubt it. I think oversupply did it.

FT beyond brics - Gigantic mango oversupply. But this won't translate to cheaper mango juice at the supermarket because Indians can't export to save their lives, the morons.

Mineweb - gold production up, jewelry fabrication down. And that is the story.

Mining.com - growing iron ore surplus to 2018. Well, it looks like we managed to build out supply to meet the increased demand of the emerging markets, eh? Despite what Adrian Day and others have to say about commodity supercycles.

Gold Report - Kevin Campbell from Haywood on the bright future of the Venture. I'll leave it to Otto to take apart his chat piece by piece, but I think statements like "Junior mining is a complicated business and an adviser needs a basic understanding of geology, differing jurisdictions, personalities, commodities and a whole litany of other factors" are a bit ripe. Dude, all advisers have to do is sign up for a PP, pump the stock to their followers, then puke their holdings into the market when the 4-month hold is up.

IKN - if you have the cash to pay divis what the fucking bloody bleeding fuck-faced fuck are you fucking doing diluting the sharecount, asshole fuckers? I told Otto to email Webster's to get them to deliver another batch of swear-words cos he's about to run out. More importantly, Lachlan Star is little more than the average junior miner, in which case you have to wonder how stupid retail has to be to buy any of these shit-stains. Especially to drive LSA up 17% on a day that BCM is down 4%. Ahem.

BI - rich cunts who use tax havens. Again, notice how so many of them are politicians. Shouldn't y'all be doing something about these crooks? Or do you want to be a serf whose rulers are above the law? Are we going back to the age of Divine Right?

As Otto puts it....

He's too lazy to post on his own blog today.

As he says, today's market action reeks of "hey, gold didn't collapse again today? Great, let's buy back all the stock we puked yesterday!"

SMBC must be a goldbug

Funny cartoon from SMBC today....


Well, that doesn't totally suck


So there's been a fairly big reversal today in a lot of the miners. Sandstorm is back up to $9. SVL and BTO have fought their way back up, but OGC and some others still lag.

I was just saying to Jojo that it's funny this happened while gold and silver still haven't broken yesterday's close.

Also, GDXJ is still more than -2SD.

And I'm wondering why the funds that were puking GDXJ yesterday aren't puking it today as well. That seems fishy to me.

So I'll just sit here and watch. Happy to hold my Sandstorm shares, happy also to have cash til the market quits fucking around and Faber wades in to bail us all out.


Has the Guardian gone fucking Tory?


Here's another great article I found:

The Guardian - Leaks reveal secrets of the rich who hide cash offshore. Here's the first two paragraphs:

Millions of internal records have leaked from Britain's offshore financial industry, exposing for the first time the identities of thousands of holders of anonymous wealth from around the world, from presidents to plutocrats, the daughter of a notorious dictator and a British millionaire accused of concealing assets from his ex-wife.

The leak of 2m emails and other documents, mainly from the offshore haven of the British Virgin Islands (BVI), has the potential to cause a seismic shock worldwide to the booming offshore trade, with a former chief economist at McKinsey estimating that wealthy individuals may have as much as $32tn (£21tn) stashed in overseas havens.


Now excuse the fuck out of me, you interestingly-dentitioned Limey twats, but... "potential to cause a seismic shock worldwide to the booming offshore trade"?

Has the Guardian gone fucking Tory?

How about a seismic shock worldwide to the perceived legitimacy of democratic governments? Hm? Care about that at all?

Don't the press feel it necessary to point out that these are the same government officials who are taking our shit away from us? I.e., we poor workers aren't allowed to have any of the shit anymore that our grandparents fought for and got shot for, but the politicians can siphon millions out of our countries to their secret bank accounts?

Seriously, has the Guardian gone fucking Tory?

You already know what I think should be done to the politicians, the bankers, and the investor class.

If the damn press want to align themselves with the kleptocracy instead of doing their damn job keeping it in check, we're going to have to add them to the "enemies of the people" list.

Here's the link to the people who really care about exposing the kleptocrats.

Now hopefully back to the news


JC Parets - the escalator up and the elevator down. Generally good article. A good piece of advice is his statement "what if it doesn’t do that? What if it does the opposite? Where are we wrong? Where does the market tell us to get out?” But as for the escalator/elevator analogy, we're goldbugs dude we know that stfu.

BI - initial jobless claims spike 28k. Sequester starting to kick in, maybe? Who cares, gold doesn't.

Ritholtz - tax withholding surges in March. So, that's a net positive for the US economy.
Bespoke - the R2K/SPY divergence. Also, tranny isn't confirming the S&P. So I guess all the signals mean a short-term top, or pause, should come now.

BI - BoJ plans to inflate the monetary base by 72T yen by end 2013. Who cares? Gold doesn't.

Reuters - Manmohan Signh says mmrm mhrm hrmrm. Downturn in the Indian economy. Hey, you don't think that might be... um... ...?

Reuters - Now GFMS is calling for a bear market in gold. Sigh. But here's the bit that's been weighing on my mind: "We expect ongoing modest growth in mine production and should also see an increase in scrap, while demand excluding investment is likely to fall." If so, then no supply-demand person like me should want to touch gold.

Mineweb - price-sensitive investors will push down gold at the margin. Basically, lower prices are a sell signal and higher prices are a buy signal. In any case, now Jeff Christian is predicting $1400 gold.

Vancouver venture - what's on sale. He's helped me figure out what the fuck is going on. As he says: "I guess the Wall/Bay Street mantra is gold and/or precious metals are only good as a risk hedge and an inflation hedge, which they conclude are off the table. So this once crowded trade seems to be unwinding." I can get that. Even a wrong trade can be crowded, so they're selling despite it being wrong. So I guess that means we get our $1400 gold, then?

But why buy the stocks then?

Off on a ranting tangent


Gold is still struggling, but I have heard from someone who says he was talking to someone who knows Mark Faber who says Faber is buying gold.

Anyway.

David Kotok - contagion starts small. He still thinks Cyprus is the beginning of the end... after all, what's to stop the worldwide plutocracy from simply confiscating peoples' bank accounts now? He's... um... about 2 weeks behind on this topic. Apparently nobody gives a shit.

For what it's worth, I do agree 100% that a rubicon has been crossed, and no I'm not trying to be a goldbug doomer here. Banking systems (or capital markets in general) require an extreme level of trust in order to function. Trust doesn't just affect bond yield; it's deeper than that, and bank runs are the proof of this.

And anyway, one thing nobody has mentioned is how strange it is that depositors get bailed in while the bondholders didn't. Yeah, the Cypriot bank bondholders were mostly other banks, so bailing them in raises fear of contagion; but why should the banks and their investors (members of the plutocracy) not share that pain? And would a few billion dollars in tanked bondholdings really be enough to start a contagion?

Meanwhile, there's yet more news of the plutocrats shuffling their money out of Cypriot banks before the bank holiday. And also, politicians the world over are being implicated in all sorts of other tax-evasion and banking scandals.

Doesn't the sum of all this look to you like an impending worldwide social crisis? Like a crisis in legitimacy of power structures? Hm? Not just a little bit?

Frankly, my old "bring back the Baader-Meinhof gang" thesis still holds its validity two years later... the world needs a violent transnational revolutionary movement to rise up and kill off just enough of the ruling class that we can move away from fiat kleptocracy and back to some form of democracy. I'm not joking; I look at history and see that the only time the rulers bother to behave is when a bloody putsch has been etched into their memories.

Maybe the real rubicon that was crossed wasn't just the bailing in of depositor accounts. Maybe the real rubicon was the outright admission by government officials that the ruling kleptocracy will not be forced to take losses on their investments through the traditional free-market method of wiping out shareholders and bailing in bondholders; that instead they'll dump all the hardship on the little people (and yes, the little people includes those members of the Russian biznesmeni who were too slow to get their money out with the rest of the people who the Cypriot government shared inside information with).

I've gone off on a tangent, so I'll do the rest of the news bits in the next post.

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

On SocGen's bullshit


So the selling abated at 1PM today, which makes me think it's all Europeans selling, which makes me think it has something to do with SocGen's bullshit analysis from yesterday's FT that they pulled out of some poor intern's ass.

So let's take a look, shall we?


My first reaction:




Now, some very basic points and I'm off to do something constructive.

1. First thing I see in their little chart here is absolutely no mention of China and India. They buy 50% of world gold production. So SocGen have failed already.

2. Oh wait. They call "moderate global GDP growth" neutral for gold, while "strong global GDP growth" bearish. Because... fuck I dunno, strong EM growth will mean all of a sudden Indians won't buy gold anymore. They'll suddenly fall in love with the banks that don't exist outside of the big cities, which they've had no experience putting savings in, which they'll trust because of India's long history of corruption and superior business acumen.

3. Who the fuck cares what happens in the US? Does the US buy any gold?

4. And the Fed balance sheet does what for gold now? Does the existence of assets on their balance sheet cause gold to be bought or sold anywhere in the world aside from a few clowns in the goldbug blogosphere?

5. Also, who the fuck cares what happens in the speculative markets? Yes, some paper gold will get sold. And yes, some funds will sell GLD. But GLD holdings are already back to where they were in July 2011 before the spike to $185; CoTs are at a 4-year low and spec shorts are at an 8-year high. You think more paper is going to get sold from here on?

6. As for central banks,


Central bank gold holdings is also an emerging market growth play. As in, gold is where a nonzero percentage of their trade surpluses end up.

Oh, and "central bank buying is small compared to ETF holdings"? That's funny, cos GFMS says that 2012 official sector purchases were over 500 tons. GLD's holdings are around 1200 tons. That's "small", eh? For comparison, BREE estimates 2013 fabrication demand at 2580 tons, and 2013 scrap supply to decline 5% to 1560 tons. So by your own fucking retarded logic, SuckGen, you fucking Froggie surrender-monkey queers, the real question is what happens in India and China, and not what is happening with GLD.

Basically, let's talk about supply & demand, and not about how much white people think they're important to the gold price.

Goldbuggers got slaughtered - here, have a listen to this

Volume on GDXJ


OK, your own fave stocks didn't see huge volume today, but GDXJ is close to capitulation volume I think:


So far it's the 3rd biggest volume day of the crash.


There's a fear indicator for you


Here's a great intraday goldbug fear indicator:

As I write this, Turd Ferguson's website is down. Probably swamped with requests.

"OMG! Teh metalz is dooomz! Let's all run to Turd Ferguson and get new orders! We have to check in at his website because he will tell us what to do! Because we can't think for ourselves!"

When it comes back up I'm sure they'll blame it on the Jews and the Bilderbergers.

I wonder whatever happened to those stocks I sold on Monday....


I wonder what happened to those four good producers that I sold Monday when the action looked suspect.


Did Namibia declare war against Nicaragua again?



I guess La Arena ran out of gold. They just announced it or something.



No, maybe it's the Philippines that declared war against Nicaragua this time. Heh, another mine that can't turn a profit at $1560 gold, I guess.



Yup, these guys too. Can't mine silver at a profit, go down 20%, right?

If anyone out there knows John Paulson, could you please kick him repeatedly in the testicles?

Good ol' Otto the Knifecatcher


Posted with insufficient comment:


(Actually he bought at $2.66.)

GDXJ is getting puked

How do I know Paulson is puking GDXJ today?

Or whoever?

Here are charts for 5 of the top ten GDXJ holdings:






4 of 5 are below the -2SD line. On relatively insignificant volume.

Oh by the way, this is a day when GDXJ is down over 4.5% by lunch, but gold is down half a percent and silver is down 1%.

Sorry, my bullshit meter is ringing right now. Someone is desperate to sell a stupid large position - maybe that clown Paulson - and so, just like a good moshpit, the audience here is going to move out of the way and let the fat stagediver guy fall flat on his face against the concrete. Then move in and steal his Docs.

Of course the bullshit could continue far longer than I could want to hold anything at a loss. So I'm happy to sit and watch and continue to do my capital gains forms.

So will the USD roll over or not?


Here's two of the USD's non-commodity-currency competitors:


127 seems to be an important point. Is another crisis in the offing in Europe? Or have they had their last crisis for a while? If the latter, Euro should go up, no? Or at least stay pretty much where it is, right?



Abenomics was meant to devalue the currency. So Yen dove for two months before Abe's policies were even put into effect, and now that he's ready to move, Yen is moving back up.


Pound is the only thing that should continue to move lower, I'd think, as that Nazi cunt Cameron continues to intentionally destroy the British economy.

If the USD can't continue to move up against all three of these, it must start moving down, no?

Bottoms have higher lows, right?


Bottoms have higher lows, right?


Do those look higher to you?

US dollar


Thing is, why would I want to short gold and long the S&P 500 right now?

S&P leadership is breaking down and the economic surprise index has peaked.

Meanwhile the US dollar looks like it wants to roll over:


I really want to short silver and gold miners into the ground right now, but I can't with this looking like this.

Next up, gold?

OK. So you saw what happened earlier this week when silver broke its range:


Now is gold about to break down too?


Only a few points to go....

There must be some new content on the Kitco Youtube channel


So I go check my stats this morning and this is what I see:




An upsurge in obsessive Daniela Cambone searches can only mean one thing.

She interviewed someone vaguely famous, and the interview has just been put up on YouTube.

I'll have to go check.

UPDATE: Nope, just Peter Hug.



Only two newsbits this morning.


Yeh, so GDXJ has bust through the lower Bollinger. I'll be watching the volumes in the "buyable" pile of stocks, but other than that I'm not interested in buying a weak market anymore. I want better news and a better chart.

Also really need to get around to doing my taxes.

Oh and finding the Game of Thrones episode from this weekend.

Anyway, only two newsbits of a morning:

der Spargel - Developing nations retreating from Euro. I already posted that big chart a few days ago showing how the EMs are apportioning some of their reserves in gold. But the world doesn't care, they're still selling.

der Spargel - Economic crisis hits the Netherlands. Now, they're supposedly a conservative, superior Aryan people, those Dutch. Always pinching pennies. Not like those swarthy Mediterraneans! So do you think they'll be subjected to the moralizing and lecturing that is constantly dumped on the Spanish and Greeks? I mean, a collapsed real estate bubble is a collapsed real estate bubble, right? So shouldn't the ECB be telling the Dutch how bad they are, and how they should eliminate welfare and spend more on German tanks? Fair is fair, right?


Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Some news


Ritholtz - what he be thinking about. Many very good points in this article, do read it! Examples: "Investors now are carrying cash at 16 month highs, according to AAII"; "Market Tops are long drawn out processes that very, very few people can call on a timely basis. You are not one of those people"; and most importantly, "Pick three money losing blogs to remove from your RSS feed, blog roll and daily routine."

Calculated Risk - measures of the recovery. Some graphs to show you that the US still hasn't recovered all the way yet.

Bespoke - weak breadth. Y'know, maybe we'll see a pullback in April just because so many people now want one that it's going to happen just from sheer force of will. By the way - how do you get a weak materials sector from Chinese and American growth? Hm?

Bonddad - US, UK and EU inflation is under control. Quit damn well thinking they're going to lose their grip. It hasn't happened yet; unless you can give a specific mechanism that will cause inflation to spring up, your call for inflation is just so much farting in the wind. Oh, and here's a chart:



Reuters - oh great, someone made up a new catchy acronym, thus calling the top in Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico and the Philippines. Seriously, fuck acronyms, and just invest in emerging markets that don't suck, okay? Personally I'd stay away from the Philippines (apparently they're a corrupt shithole, and they do have an insurgency in the south); I'd instead include Thailand.

BBC - how much gold is there in the world really? Nobody really knows; I'd wager that any estimate done by white people is going to grossly underestimate the amount of gold that Indian women have, for example. But it's nice to see that, thanks to electronics use, gold is "now being consumed for the first time in history". Oh, and here's a picture of HMQ inspecting her loot:



Ritholtz - edumacation still matters. Now, here's a chart:


And I give you this article in the goldbug section because, as reported recently by CNBC, goldbugs are typically under-educated (high-school grads at most), underwater on their homes, and with under $50K investable. No wonder they're doomers: for the illiterates, unemployment is still 12% and their earnings are only 60% of undergrads. So of course goldbugs feel the economy has been destroyed and the market is overvalued and about to collapse!

FT Alphaville: Soc Gen double down on stoopid, demonstrating they have utterly no fucking clue when to shut the fuck up. I'm going to have to write an entire article on this Wagnerian tragedy of a compost heap of a war crime of a "gold market analysis". Those fucking idiots didn't learn their lesson the first time.

And so down, down we go!


Silver continues to collapse.



GDXJ lost its Bollinger mean and is about to break in MACD terms.

Yesterday afternoon I got paranoid, and dumped all my BTO, RIO, SVL and OGC. Who says paranoia is a bad thing? The action stank, things were crapping out on zero volume, and so I got out.

Meanwhile my ECON and FLAG positions are fine.

I still own some SSL warrants, but Sandstorm ain't doing too bad by comparison.

Which reminds me of something: maybe the terrible GDXJ action is because people are seeing costs rise at even all the good miners now? And since Sandstorm has locked-in "cost of production", they won't do as bad in comparison.

Maybe a SSL:GDXJ chart would tell you how much people are worried about production costs. Something to think about.

Anyway... I saw a few thousand in paper profit in OGC and BTO essentially disappear into a wash, so I'm not interested in buying any fucking producing miners any more. Screw them, right? Give me a profit or else I'm not buying. I'd rather own tech and emerging markets consumer right now.

Feel free to use me as a contrary indicator - a barometer of retail sentiment is the same thing.

Monday, April 1, 2013

Speaking yet further of which....

Here's as much of the old 1972 Hawkwind footage as anyone's ever managed to compile into a vaguely representative video of Silver Machine.


Speaking of which....


Some people probably didn't get the reference this morning, and normally I don't give a shit about any of you capitalist pigs, and would usually just keep the video for Friday, but I just found out Primal Scream covered Urban Guerrilla so here's a youtube:



And here's the Wikipedia article: Urban Guerrilla (Hawkwind song)

And here's the lyrics for future blogging reference:

I'm an urban guerilla
I make bombs in my cellar
I'm a derelict dweller
I'm a potential killer
I'm a street fighting dancer
I'm a revolutionary romancer
I'm society's cancer
I'm a two-tone panther
So let's not talk of love and flowers
And things that don't explode
We've used up all of our magic powers
Trying to do it in the road

I'm a political bandit
And you don't understand it
You took my dream and canned it
It is not the way I planned it
I'm society's destructor
I'm a petrol bomb constructor
I'm a cosmic light conductor
I'm the people's debt collector
So watch out Mr. Business Man
Your empire's about to blow
I think you'd better listen, man 

In case you did not know

The original sounds a lot better actually. Sorry Bobby.

April Fools from the Gold Report?


The Gold Report - Jeb Handwerger follows the smart money to undervalued miners.

Here's a video:



Here's a chart:


Here are some of a large number of newspaper articles:

Edmonton Journal - Bobby Genovese profited ahead of Liberty Silver halt, filing reveals
Financial Post - Junior miner Liberty Silver under double scrutiny
and even Bob Moriarty - Liberty Silver, Clearly Canadian Scam

Here is the meat of the matter:

A Letter to the SEC Regarding LBSV and Bobby Genovese

Yes, Brian Sylvester! He really does follow the smart money! Man oh man, if there's smart money, he's following it.

Oh, I forgot. Here's Orly:


Newsbits


Ritholtz - sell side still bearish. So what's going to happen?

BI - blah blah bitcoin. I think bitcoins are hilarious. Don't you?

JC Parets - both copper and UST yields seem to be breaking down. What does that mean? Doom, or something?

Beyond brics - China PMI on the up. That's positive. Why's silver losing support?

BI - Asian economies are improving. That's positive. Why's silver losing support?

Mineweb - huge surplus weighs on silver. Ah. That's why silver's going down.

I'm a bloggin' guerrilla, I make blogs in my cellar


So watch out mister goldbug man
your index is about to blow

Sunday, March 31, 2013

Threads, a classic UK movie

Ah, Server always provides.

Here's Threads.



Warning: it's not lightweight feel-good American chickenshit like The Day After (piece of cuddly garbage) or On the Beach (the TV version was actually very good, with the sweet little Aussie hottie Jacqueline McKenzie; I've never seen the film version). Threads is a really fucking dark movie.

Here's the writeup from Wikipedia:

Threads is a British television drama produced by the BBC in 1984. Written by Barry Hines and directed by Mick Jackson, it is a documentary-style account of a nuclear war and its effects on the city of Sheffield in northern England.

Filmed in late 1983 and early 1984, the primary plot centres on two families, the Kemps and the Becketts, as an international crisis between the United States and the Soviet Union erupts and escalates. As the United Kingdom prepares for war, the members of each family deal with their own personal crises. Meanwhile, a secondary plot centered upon Clive J. Sutton, the Chief Executive of Sheffield City Council serves to illustrate for the viewer the United Kingdom government's then-current continuity of government arrangements. As open warfare between NATO and the USSR-led Warsaw Pact begins, the harrowing details of the characters' struggle to survive the attacks is dramatically depicted. The balance of the story details the fate of each family as the characters face the medical, economic, social, and environmental consequences of a nuclear war.

Watch the movie, please.

News for the prewar calm


It's very annoying that last night I had a nuclear war dream for the first time in 25 years. I think I'll go look for a copy of the UK movie Threads on YouTube and put it up here for y'all to watch, to try and inspire y'all to start putting the boots to the idiot political class who wishes to use us as pawns while they play their stupid political games.

I had thought I would have had my last nuclear war nightmare after Gorbachev took over the Soviet Union.

Three newsbits for a Sunday to keep you up to date:

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - now he thinks the economic surprise index will be the excuse for a market drop.

der Spargel - Luxembourg doesn't like this newfangled idea of bailing in depositors. But that's because, similar to Cyprus, Luxembourg's banking industry is 5 times the size of their GDP. Meaning Luxembourg is another country whose entire economy is based around banking. Mostly involving laundering dirty money, only this time from Germany. But since they're Aryans in Luxembourg, not swarthy Mediterraneans who wake up late and enjoy life more than Germans, they get a fucking free pass, right?

Mineweb - oh shit, now they're talking about hedging again. Though thankfully, most mining execs still feel it would be a dumb idea. Which means the execs think gold still goes up from here, and I'd rather hear their feelings on the issue than the feelings of some loony goldbug.

Return of the son of bunnies


There is no end to the number of bunny videos I can find!