Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Some enchanted evening news

Here's more stuff:

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - bullish sentiment is now officially embarrassing. So I guess a few days of incomprehensible market pukage is in order to reset the sentiment, eh? Probably everyone wanted to buy into the market to be positioned for the Santa Claus Rally that usually begins about now... so they just created a Santa Claus Rally that'll end about now.

Calculated Risk - looking for stronger economic growth in 2014. Bill McBride tends to repeat himself, which is good if you're also reading other blogs that pollute your mind with inessentials and lies. In this case, he reminds that the sequester drag is over, state & local austerity drag is over, and therefore some significant headwinds to US growth are gone.

BI - replacing aging capital stock is bullish. Here, read this:
"The last time the corporate sector allowed its capital stock to get this old and obsolete was back in 1958," wrote Rosenberg today. "The very next year, the annual growth rate in volume capital spending swung from -6% to +13.5%"

"Given the rate of depreciation, we typically need 4% real capex growth just to prevent obsolescence from taking hold; in the past five years, we have averaged less than 1% annual growth," he added. "With productivity growth now vanishing, with clear negative implications for profit margins if not reversed, the incentive to start plowing some of the cash hoard back into the real economy is running very high and is actually becoming increasingly evident in the recent business survey data. Revived capex growth is likely going to emerge as a key bullish cyclical theme for 2014."
Makes sense, no? I wonder who wrote thOMG IT'S THAT PERMADOOMER ROSENBERG!!!

Yes, that's right! The "massive repudiation of debt as a dishonest system comes apart at the seams" crowd's favourite doomer, David Rosenberg, whose opinions once carried some weight when they were consonant with the Ron Paul crowd, is now suggesting a multi-year period of fundamental, capex-driven US growth!

Bespoke - internet group breaks out. As they say, "a nice breakout above its sideways range to close at new highs".

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - strength begets more strength. Here's his quote of Jeffrey Kleintop:
Some may fear an outsized gain in the stock market during 2013, is surely to be punished with losses in the coming year. However, historically after a one-year total return in the 25 – 30% range, the S&P 500 has followed it up by more solid years of gains. In fact, the average return in a year following a 25 – 30% gain was 12%, and stocks posted a double-digit gain in four of the five occurrences (the exception was 1961’s gain of 26.9%, which was followed by a loss of 8.7% in 1962) [Figure 4]. In fact, most of the years were actually followed by several years of strong gains, as was the case in 1943, 2003, and 2009.
Or you can keep believing we're in an unsustainable bubble.

Reuters - Letta wins confidence vote, vows reforms. We'll see: with no Berlusconi, maybe Italian politics can become slightly more honourable for a few years. As an aside, do you remember all those clowns who were predicting a Eurozone breakup? You might want to look them up and ask them if they're still retarded.

Reuters - Congress Party vows to tackle inflation after drubbing. Yeah good luck with that you incompetent asshats.

IKN - Cookie's turn on the troubles with 43-101. It really looks like Cookie's suggesting you shouldn't bother with explorecos unless you are already so experienced in the business that you can tell the well-written reports from the bad ones. - Chilean miners turn to solar to ease energy crunch. Power was the limiting factor for Chilean mining growth, so this is interesting to see. I'd wonder about the cost-benefit, since last I checked solar generation is grossly costly; but I'm sure the miner in question already did the math.


  1. In a monastery, the monks greet each other every day by chanting their greetings
    Novice: Mooorningg
    Abbot: Mooorningg
    Novice: Mooorningg
    Abbot: Mooorningg
    Abbot: "Someone chanted evening!"

    I'll get my coat

  2. A bit of followup on some bit you posted recently.