Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Oh and some news why not
Some reading about stuff:
The Chronicles of Brodrick - man, gold's chart really fucking sucks. Wherein he posts a chart:
Sean, who is left to sell gold down below $1200?
Mineweb - India mulls gold mining revival. I'm sure that'll work. I mean, India's done a great job mining coal and iron, right? But seriously folks, one thing to look out for in a secular commodity bear market is third-world countries artificially depressing commodity prices through state intervention and industrial subsidy. And India is great for state intervention and industrial subsidy, no?
Bespoke - tracking the financial post-crash recovery versus the QQQ post-crash recovery. In which we are presented with this comparative chart:
Now, I already proved just a month ago that the GDXJ has gone through a NASDAQ 2000-style crash. If so, then if you assume the miners have already hit bottom, and that the GDXJ simply follows even just the bank crash as an analogue, it will take 300 days just to get back to $60, and another 700 days after that to break through. Pretty damn sad, eh?
Oh, and that's assuming the GDXJ recovers the way the banks did - via a massive infusion of cash from the US government. Uh... which isn't going to happen. So if you instead assume the GDXJ follows the NASDAQ recovery line, it'll take 1500 days just to get back to $60.
That's 5 years for a double. It's more realistic to expect that from the S&P 500.