Monday, December 9, 2013

Join me in a thought experiment

Riddle me this.

Pretend we're back in the beginning of November, and you're some guy running a junior mining fund. Your predecessor has already spent much of the year selling all the stocks in the fund, mainly cos of redemptions, also because of death threats.

Now he's fired, or maybe dead, or maybe just disappeared, and you've been shunted into his former position as manager of that fund, probably because your boss hates you.

Your task: sell all the rest of the stocks in this fund before end 2013. Obviously, try to get the best price possible.

Are you really going to stagger everything out so that you're still selling after December 13th?

I'd think you'd be trying to get all your dumping done before then. After all, it's best to beat the tax loss selling rush, and do you really think there's going to be liquidity left in the market next week?

So I'm curious as to how much junior miner selling we see after this week is done. Maybe they go lower if we see another leg down in gold, but otherwise this week should be it, no?

Of course, if the selling continues on through Xmas and into the beginning of January, that means there's still a lot more selling in the tank before we can call a bottom, right?

I just found it an interesting idea and wanted to share it. We'll see what really happens.

1 comment:

  1. December 24th will be the last trade day for settlement on Dec 31. I would chalk all the selling to be done on Dec. 20th though as most will take the Monday and half Tuesday off.