Saturday, December 21, 2013

And now for some news

I've felt everything was pretty much set-and-forget, so there wasn't much point in posting news. Also I was busy with other things.

But here's a bit of weekend reading for you:

BI - David Rosenberg's outlook for 2014. I wonder if Mister "dishonest system coming apart at the seams" is going to quote Rosenberg in this weekend's newsletter? I wonder if "abating fiscal headwinds" and "increasing capex growth" are economic concepts that your local doomer analyst even comprehends? I wonder why you should be giving even a penny of your money to an "analyst" who doesn't even understand these things?

Bonddad - on Thursday's initial claims report. Haven't been reading his blog recently, but here he looks under the hood and points out several places where the data is not what it seems. Read it.

FT beyond brics - China liquidity crunch. Seems nobody's paying attention to this right now.

Marketwatch - Mark Hulbert on gold. Ouch:
Gold market timers have not themselves completely thrown in the towel. If and when they do, contrarians would become more confident that a sustainable gold rally was imminent.

Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). This average currently stands at minus 16.7%, suggesting that the typical gold timer is allocating a sixth of his gold-oriented portfolio to shorting the market.

That means that the typical timer is only modestly bearish right now. You’d think, given the panic elsewhere in the industry, that they would be more aggressively bearish.

There are two patterns in the accompanying chart that are noteworthy in this regard. First, notice the HGNSI’s low this past summer. That’s when it dropped to minus 56.7%, which meant that at that time the average gold timer was more than three times more bearish than today. Contrarians are wondering why, since bullion itself is only slightly higher today than where it stood when the HGNSI was so much lower.

Secondly, notice how quickly the HGNSI has been jumping every time gold tried to mount even a tiny rally. That’s a bad sign, from a contrarian point of view, since it suggests there’s an underlying reservoir of hope and optimism. The ultimate low, according to contrarian analysis, will be one that is met by a lot more skepticism and despair from gold timers.
So this isn't the bottom yet? I don't really follow Mark Hulbert and his sentiment analysis, but I know certain goldbug TAs out there do. It'll be interesting to see if they mention this article this weekend.

Mineweb - more stories about Indian gold smuggling. There's a billion Indians and 400 tons of organic gold demand being repressed: does anyone really believe that incompetent clown Chidambaram when he asserts "the maximum gold that can be smuggled is 1 tonne a month"? Especially when Indians are doing this:
In another incident, officials of the customs department recovered gold hidden in dates from a man who landed at the Pune International Airport from Sharjah. The suspect has been identified as a resident of Kasargod in Kerala, who worked in Abu Dhabi.

The custom sleuths found the dates wrapped in a bag. Further investigation revealed that the seeds of these dates had been replaced with gold beads wrapped in black packets. The gold beads weighed 409 grams each.
Seriously, when they're going to these lengths, you can be sure there's an army of Indians doing a better job smuggling their gold into the country.

Especially when you realize professional smugglers pay off the police and airport authorities so that they never even get their stuff inspected. This guy with the dates was just a hobbyist.


  1. I admire that man's pluck, but those would be some heavy dates. Reminds me of Cheech and Chong's Up in Smoke.

  2. Best blog post about Bitcoin that I've run across lately.

    1. Here's the best blog post about bitcoin that I've seen: