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Thursday, December 5, 2013

A bit more news


A few more things I came across:


New Deal Democrat - sorry doomers, there is no US housing bubble. His summary:
Keep in mind that the same Doomers who are telling you now that there is a housing bubble are the same Doomers who predicted foreclosure tsunamis that never arrived, and that housing prices wouldn't bottom in early 2012. On the other hand, besides yours truly who called both the top of the bubble as it happened and in summer 2011 that the bottom of the bust would occur in the early months of 2012, three other people who have a, shall we say, pretty decent record in calling the housing market - Bill McBride a/k/a Calculated Risk, Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller, and Fed Chair nominee Janet Yellen - all agree with me that there is no new US housing bubble now.
Okay, sure, you deserve to pat yourself on the back.


Reuters Data Dive - the aging of America's things. Maybe the things have aged, not because of higher durability or lower innovation, but instead because America wasn't buying things since 2008. Maybe they will start buying things again as the economy continues to recover and a rise in interest rates forces them to shit or get off the pot? Interesting blog by the way: too bad Reuters makes it so damn difficult to RSS things.


Yahoo Finacne - Turkish gold imports up in 2013. It's not extremely important size-wise; but at 270 tons this year, over double last year's imports, it's significant enough to take note of. And considering Turkey is one of the EMs exposed to a current account crisis, maybe this reflects well on gold demand from other bad EMs?


FT beyond brics - India's current account deficit: smoke and mirrors? Good for you, Avantika; you're the first person I found (other than me) who has pointed out that India's CAD improvement on the back of restricting gold imports is fake if those gold imports simply move underground. Now ask some macro wonk to explain how to do the forensics to show where the gold smuggling effects are showing up - like in some unexpected divergence between INR and CAD, I dunno. Just don't ask Izzy: goldbugs stole her tricycle, so she's not going to be very friendly to any mention of he yellow metal.


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