Friday, November 29, 2013

The disingenuous outright lying of Tom McLellan

Check out this chart:

Do you see the problems with it?

There are three. After the break, I'll 'splain what they are:

Problem #1: see the scales? The scales do not equate. DJIA current period is up about 25% (16100/12900), while the 1928-29 Dow was up ~77% (345/195) in the same period. The only way you manage to pick dissimilar scales that mislead us is purposefully. I.e. lying.

Problem #2: why is today's Dow supposed to follow this pattern? Why is today's market supposed to act the same as the 1928 market? Why is it supposed to top on January 14, 2014? Especially considering today's market is only up 1/3 as much as the 1928 Dow, a point that McLellan disingenuously tries to hide? And especially considering this implies either an economic crash that doesn't show up in the forward indicators, or alternately a 25% PE compression? And especially considering the last time he tried this sort of suggestive charting, drawing an analog between the 2013 gold crash and the 2008 S&P crash, it predicted a gold price recovery that ultimately never happened?

Problem #3: who the fuck is this yeasty codpiece anyway, and how much of a sucker do you have to be to pay attention to him just because he can chart two dissimilar things on different scales and imply a correlation? And are you more of a sucker for paying attention to him after it's pointed out that his chart scales have been purposefully massaged to imply a false correspondence?

My god, do people really invest in the TA equivalent of Tarot card readings?

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