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Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Some newsbits


Some light reading:

Michael Shaoul - correction for yesterday's note on spreads. Not necessary for reading, just as a lesson: he looked into the spread between the Fannie Mae 10Y benchmark and the UST10Y benchmark, and realized that FNM debt is all 2017. Thus, its 10Y benchmark is not a 10Y benchmark, and thus it doesn't mean what you think it means.

And this is important to me because it shows Shaoul knows to look under the hood when something sounds funny. This is why he, McBride, and NDD/Hale Stewart are real analysts and most everyone else in the blogosphere is little more than a semiliterate clown with an internet connection and should be avoided.

Seriously, if you're following someone who spouts off meaningless data points and he doesn't even know to look under the hood to ensure he understands what he's actually talking about, he is an utter waste of your time.

(Come on, they teach this in first-year science: the last third of all questions at the end of each chapter are "trick" questions that you're guaranteed to get wrong if you don't realize that non-standard conditions given in the problem require modification or re-derivation of your formula. It's basic stuff.)

Sean Brodrick - US dollar strengthens. Sean can give us plenty of reasons why the dollar shouldn't rally. But if one of them is that everyone thinks the dollar shouldn't rally, then my money is on the dollar rallying.

Michael Shaoul - Spain unemployment seems to have bottomed and boy look at that UK services PMI. Both indicate meaningful changes in economies.

FT beyond brics - gold demand softens this Diwali. Is India truly out of the race for future gold demand? Well, Avantika Chilkoti hasn't proven himself competent at using data instead of anecdotes. And I fail to be convinced that they're truly gathering Indian gold demand data, and not just upper-class Bombay gold demand data. I'll wait for the next WGC publication, thank you.

PS Dave - Barrick bummer belies bottom, bold blogger bloviates. Essentially, he seems to suggest this must be a bottom because how much more can these companies suck?

IKN - chart of the day: GLD gold holdings. The important thing, to me, is this is gold that Whitey no longer has for his market.


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