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Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Some morning reading


Just a few news items to keep you busy while you watch the S&P crash on a stupid opinion from Carl Icahn, ZeroHedge's newest hero.

By the way, I found it interesting that SLV and GLD were acting in correlation with $VIX this morning. Almost as if Wall Street Whitey is eyeing a move back into PMs as a fucking economic collapse play?

Anyway, here's the news:


Liz Ann Sonders - dismiss bubble talk for now. With this article, Liz Ann Sonders becomes my new fave. A quote of the intro:
One of my themes over the past few years is that the bull market that began in 2009 is of the "secular," not "cyclical" variety. There are an increasing number of adherents to that perspective and it could help to explain, ironically, why there is also an elevated fear that this bull market is coming to a close. I say ironically because it's precisely the increased optimism that has brought on fears of a bull market finale. I, too, consistently observe sentiment as a gauge for market behavior, but the growing cries that we've reached sentiment or valuation extreme worthy of past tops, or a bubble at its bursting point, seems a bit premature; even with the Dow hitting 16,000 and the S&P 500 hitting 1800 as I write this today.

It's instructive to observe past market tops and put them on the opposite side of today's mirror. What you won't find is a reflection. Our friends at Strategas Research Partners recently put together a brief table highlighting the factors typically in place at major market tops; all of which had kicked in at both the 2000 and 2007 tops. Of the nine factors listed, there is only one flashing red today: rising real interest rates.
Read the whole thing because she's a true analyst, and has now stolen my heart from that uncaring vixen Erica Rannestad at CPM.


Granita & Brioche - is the Fed behind the curve? I have no idea who runs this blog, but they sometimes reprint valuable papers from e.g. Goldman Sachs, so you should follow it. This particular post (from Deutsche Bank? I dunno) shows how the Fed funds rate is lagging typical Fed tightening signals; what the article fails to mention is that this recovery has been a lot slower than any previous recovery since the 1930s, so obviously the Fed is going to stay behind the curve! I mean shit - Bernanke's explained the situation, so DB must be fucking deaf and blind or something.

I only show you this article so you know what the doomsayer goldbugs are going to be writing about in the next two weeks: because the data shown suggests the doomer argument that "OMG hyperinflation is coming!!!". And if it's one thing you can expect from a doomer newsletter writer, it's the cynical manipulation of data, with no regard for depth of analysis, in order to drive you out of the market and into bullshit like Hussman funds or gold.


FT beyond brics - China's reform plan, the summary. Short, to the point, simplified. A lot of the stuff (like officials' GDP appraisal reforms) needs major fleshing out before you can even have an opinion of it - just like a ten-year-plan policy paper should be.


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