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Wednesday, November 27, 2013

And some non-gold news


And here's your non-gold news.


Calculated Risk - US economy out of rehab. I'll quote the same part that Bill McBride quotes, but underline and bold the important bits so that you pay attention:
As we have been arguing for more than a year, we think 2014 is the year when the economy finally exits rehab and starts growing at a healthy 3% (4Q/4Q). In our view, the economy would have already exited rehab this year if the politicians had not hit the economy with a double dose of austerity and confidence shocks. Two keys to better growth—the housing market and the banking sector—had already shown serious signs of improvement in 2012, with solid gains in home prices and construction and a modest improvement in bank lending. ... Absent the shocks out of Washington, we believe growth this year would have been 3 to 3.5%.
...
Not only are structural headwinds fading, we expect Washington to be less shocking. While the sequester shock is not over—there is about a 0.2pp hit to GDP in 2014—the vast majority of the 2%-plus in fiscal austerity has already been absorbed into the economy. At the same time, with the election looming, we expect moderate politicians in each party to assert themselves and avoid another shutdown.
...
While some of the cyclical bounce has already happened, it is important to recognize that the US is still in the early stage of the business cycle. Business cycles don’t die of old age, they die from overexpansion and inflation. ... In our view, the auto recovery is fairly well-advanced, but there is a long way to go in other consumer durables, housing, and business investment. Even more important ... inflation seems a distant concern.
That's all very important. Bill McBride is great at reminding you at what is so easy to forget, so read the above again and again til it sinks in. The US economy this year has been slower than it should have been because of the sequester and the Republican terrorist attack on congress. If those headwinds now go away, the US starts expanding at 3-3.5% all of a sudden, and thus you get stock prices suddenly not being expensive relative to future earnings.

So if you see some goldbug clown asserting there's another US crash around the corner, immediately unsubscribe from his idiot newsletter and block his blog address in your hosts.txt file so that you never get misled by the idiot again.


Bespoke - jobless claims fall for sixth week in seven.


FT Alphaville - evangelii one percentium. God, this new pope is a hardcore communist! With a link to the english translation of Evangelii Gaudium, in case you're a Catholic and actually care what the pope has to say about anything. Just remember that this pope wants you to take decisive Christian action, and not just go to church and put money in the tin plate.

Watch out! God is everywhere.


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