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Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Well the miners sure do look perky


Well, GDX sure does look perky, popping way over its Bollinger and +2SD:


And GDXJ is also quite perky:


The problem I have with this is that they popped on a bullshit pop of gold. Gold only popped because there was a jobs report, delayed by the Republican nonsense, which is rather meaningless because all we care about in jobs is the trend. This is also old data.

And this jobs report isn't going to affect the taper, because the only possible taper initiations were this month (now lost), December (can still happen), and next year (less likely than this year because no matter what the MSM tells you, Yellen is not a dove; she's an empirical realist).

How does a crap jobs report mean gold goes up? How did it change demand in China and India?

And why should a single crap jobs report boost the Q and the SPY?

So therefore I'm going to look upon this with doubt. Gold went up cos a couple algos instantaneously bought gold (go look at the Kitco chart, no seriously); what news tomorrow will make algos instantaneously sell gold?

On the other hand, the gold miners might have just shaken off a big short who's now being forced to cover. But that wouldn't establish an upward trend, just the end (temporary, perhaps?) of a downward trend.

Anyway, I do still have some participation in the miners - Sandstorm warrants, and SBL for what it's worth - but I'm happy enough with my CIE.TO, QQQC and NBG, thank you very much.

I'll wait til I see a primary uptrend established in the miners. After all, I want to own miners when gold goes from $1400-$2000, not when it pops for a couple days before the next fad hits.

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