Friday, October 18, 2013

Some news

More later. Posting problems again.

Ritholtz - secular bull market roadmap. Here, look at these charts:

The second chart implies a long-term 5x-10x upside, the first chart implies the breakout has begun, and there's another chart like the first but with S&P earnings superimposed which shows the S&P multiple at this breakout is more justified than in 2007 or 2000. If you're not giving credence to the possibility of a 5x-10x upside then you're incompetent.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - from such great heights. Let's quote him completely, because I agree whole-heartedly:
Is this the top?

How about now, is this it?

The S&P 500 is now printing 1725, a new all-time record high. The Russell and Mid Cap 600 beat it there and the Dow is right behind it, perhaps.

The timers and tactical guys will now point to inflation-adjusted measures to convince you that it's not a record high but it is. The newsletter guys will rail about the Fed as they have been for five years now and the TV people will obsess over whether or not you should be "playing it" with retailers or banks or tech stocks.

Take a moment, from this peak - or way-station toward some higher, future peak - to reflect on who's been wasting your time and distracting you from your retirement goals. Who's been filling your head with nonsense. The average 401(k) balance has doubled since the market lows of 2009, has yours?

Growing as an investor is never about how much you can add to your routine, it's always about discovering what you can leave behind.

Think these thoughts and adjust your consumption habits accordingly.

BI - Jeff Saut on the nightmare of the underinvested. Again, quote:
Now that the "crisis" is in the rear view mirror, the equity markets should refocus on earnings, economics and the Federal Reserve; and here the story is pretty good. S&P's bottom up operating earnings estimate for the SPX is currently $107.58 leaving the SPX's PE ratio at almost 16. Next year's estimate is $121.66. If the SPX continues to trade at that PE multiple, it renders a price target of 1946. As far as economics, things appear to be getting better. In 2014 I believe GDP growth will finally accelerate to 3% driven by a capital expenditure cycle because companies like GM are running their plants flat out 24/7 and the equipment is wearing out. Finally, with Janet Yellen at the helm of the Fed, it should be steady as you go. That implies no tapering and plenty of liquidity. To the underinvested -- and underperforming -- investor, this trifecta is a nightmare. - gold price spikes higher on huge volumes. Frik sums up all the pro-gold arguments that just a week ago were considered utterly unimportant - Janet Yellen, postponement of the taper, QE "money printing", and so on. But Frik: gold spiked higher in the barren electronic market. Nobody covering a short is going to do it when the book is nearly empty. So gold only spiked higher cos some person wanted the price to go up.

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